According to analysts including Florian Ielpo from Lombard Odier and Ben Jones from Invesco, global markets experienced sharp turbulence in early June amid conflicting forces: AI-driven optimism supporting equity rallies against geopolitical tensions from U.S.-Iran friction and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea's Kospi index plunged nearly 9% in hours as the Korean won fell to a 17-year low on June 11, while crude oil remained above $95 per barrel, raising stagflation concerns.
Ielpo warned that sustained oil prices above $95 per barrel pose a stagflation threat, while German 10-year bond yields approached 15-year highs and Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit a 30-year record. Ben Jones noted that while geopolitical risks typically pass and markets recover, current market correlations between rates, inflation, oil, and tech investments leave "nowhere to hide" during volatility.