Shell Predicts Global LNG Supply Will Remain Flat in 2026 Due to Middle East Supply Disruptions

According to Shell's 2026 Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook released on June 30, global LNG supply is forecast to remain flat year-over-year in 2026, breaking a decade-long growth trend, amid Middle East tensions disrupting supplies.

The report assumes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen this summer; however, if the strait remains closed for several weeks, it could trigger a rare annual supply contraction of about one-fifth of global LNG exports. Shell noted that even after confirming safe passage through the strait, LNG facilities would require six to eight weeks to gradually resume production. The company expects LNG supply to return to growth by 2027.