Serenity: Continuous-Wave Lasers May Be Critical Bottleneck for AI Optical Interconnects; CPO Market Seen Reaching $91B by 2028

According to Odaily, Serenity recently stated on X that photonics combined with continuous-wave (CW) laser supply constraints represent one of the most important investment directions in AI infrastructure. Serenity highlighted that the market has overlooked Lumentum's market capitalization growth from approximately $3 billion in 2024 to over $65 billion, driven by Nvidia-spurred EML laser supply bottlenecks and optical network architecture shifts.

Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research indicating that the optical communications market's total addressable size is expected to reach $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO (co-packaged optics) market is projected to grow from near zero to $91 billion over the next 2.5 years. Serenity noted that as Nvidia continues signing long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud providers are competing for continuous-wave laser and optical component supply chain resources.