On June 4, on-chain analyst Ai Yi monitored and found that U.S. stock analyst Serenity (@aleaborteddit) bought at the 1,750 USD and 62,000 USD price points for the iShares ETHA and IBIT on June 4. Serenity clearly explained that this is a short-term swing trade, with no plan for long-term holding.
Serenity’s Assessment of Crypto Stocks
In her public post, Serenity said that Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Circle (CRCL) are at a critical juncture in 2026. She noted that if policy narratives such as “a crypto-friendly U.S. government” and “strategic reserves” fail to materialize, and a version of a quasi-clean-clear bill led by bank lobbying passes, related policies may limit yield-bearing products and financial innovation in the crypto space, weakening market liquidity. She also pointed out that, against the backdrop of the current valuation pullback, the above stocks have again become attractive to short-term traders.
Bitcoin ETF Outflow Record Data
Consecutive outflow trading days: 12 trading days (since May 15, 2026)
Cumulative outflow amount: $3.58 billion (CoinGlass data)
IBIT largest single-day redemption: about $528 million on May 27, 2026, the second-largest single-day outflow record in history
Jane Street Q1 13F: reduced holdings in Bitcoin ETFs by about 70%, with some funds shifting to Ethereum ETFs
Goldman Sachs Q1 13F: reduced holdings in Bitcoin ETFs by 10%
Target prices for Bitcoin by institutions (publicly disclosed)
Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its 2026 target price to $1 million twice (previously predicted $300,000 and $150,000), and also noted that in a downside scenario, Bitcoin could reach $500,000.
Bernstein maintained a $150,000 year-end target price, believing that institutional investors’ holdings are structurally changing market dynamics.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee set a target price of $250,000.
Deribit data shows that the open interest for 60,000 USD put options and 120,000 USD call options expiring on December 25, 2026 is roughly comparable, reflecting divergence in market views.
FAQ
What are Serenity’s ETHA and IBIT buy-in price points?
Serenity’s ETHA buy-in price is $1,750, and her IBIT buy-in price is $62,000. She clearly stated that these are for short-term swing trading and that she does not intend to hold long term. Both ETHA and IBIT are spot ETFs launched by BlackRock.
At what level is the scale of Bitcoin ETF net outflows for 12 consecutive days in historical terms?
According to CoinGlass data, this is the longest consecutive redemption record for spot Bitcoin ETFs since they were listed in the U.S. in January 2024. BlackRock’s IBIT saw about a $528 million single-day redemption on May 27, 2026, the second-largest single-day outflow record in history.
What is the significance of the FOMC’s June 16–17, 2026 decision for the crypto market?
The FOMC will release policy decisions, the latest economic forecasts, and the dot plot at this meeting. At present, the market’s core focus is whether the interest-rate path will be maintained or adjusted; different policy signals will have different directional impacts on risk assets, including crypto assets.
