Satoshi's Lost-Coin Quote Hits 16-Year Mark as 3.1M BTC Estimated Permanently Lost

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As of June 20, 2026, researchers estimate approximately 3.1 million BTC have been permanently lost, according to multiple studies. The milestone marks the 16th anniversary of Satoshi Nakamoto's June 21, 2010 response to a Bitcointalk discussion about forgotten wallets, in which Nakamoto wrote: "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone." Against the current circulating supply of 20,045,680.42 BTC tracked by Glassnode, the midpoint estimate equals roughly 15.5% of all mined bitcoin. However, a 2025 study by Mohamed El Khatib and Arnaud Legout identified only 3,197.61 BTC as provably burned on-chain through April 2024, highlighting that most lost-coin estimates remain probabilistic rather than verifiable.
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