According to Polymarket data on June 4, traders priced a 62% probability of Bitcoin dropping to $60,000 or below this month. The June bitcoin market has generated $6.22 million in total volume since its launch on June 1, with the $60K-or-lower target attracting over $748,000 in traded volume. BTC was trading at $63,826, down 2.8% on the day.
Kalshi's $60K-vs-$100K contract gives Bitcoin an 83% probability of hitting $60,000 first before year-end 2026. Myriad traders put a 67.9% edge on a $55,000 downside move versus an $84,000 upside target, with $187,000 in total volume.