S2F model inventor and Dutch anonymous quant analyst PlanB posted on X on June 1, saying he personally believes Bitcoin’s true bottom has not formed yet, and gave a judgment of more than 50% probability of downside. The two technical reference levels he listed are the 200-week moving average line and the realized price of the on-chain overall cost basis (Realized Price, currently about $53,000).
PlanB June 1 Post: 50/50 Market Split, No Bottoming Traits Seen Yet
In the post, PlanB said whether the $60,000 in February 2026 is the bottom of this cycle remains in a 50/50 split in the market. His personal judgment is based on the following short-term technical and on-chain indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measures short-term oversold or overbought conditions
Moving Average (MA): Includes the 200wma, currently around $61,000
Realized Price: Reflects the overall on-chain holders’ cost basis, currently around $53,000
Ratio of Profitable Addresses: Measures the distribution of unrealized profit and loss across current holdings
Current values of the technical reference levels: $61,000 and $53,000
Current levels of the two technical reference points listed in PlanB’s post: 200wma is at about $61,000, and the realized price is at about $53,000. Both figures are the prevailing technical indicator levels at the time the post was published (June 1, 2026).
PlanB Methodology Statement: S2F Fits the Long Term; Short Term Depends on Independent Indicators
When responding to community concerns, PlanB reiterated that the core of the S2F model is to explain the relationship between Bitcoin scarcity (stock-to-flow ratio) and the value of long-term assets, positioning it as a long-term framework tool. The post’s short-term bearish call is personal opinion and is not an official conclusion produced by the S2F model. Community members pulled up PlanB’s earlier remarks that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2026, and PlanB did not provide a direct response in the same post.
FAQ
Who is PlanB, and what is the core claim of the S2F model?
PlanB is a Dutch anonymous quant analyst, known for proposing the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model. He argues for calculating scarcity by dividing the current Bitcoin supply by the annual newly added amount, and believes scarcity is positively correlated with long-term asset value. In this post, PlanB stated that the S2F model is mainly used for the long-term framework, not for short-term volatility predictions.
What are the current levels of 200wma and the realized price?
According to PlanB’s June 1, 2026 post, the 200wma is currently at about $61,000, and the on-chain realized price is currently at about $53,000. The figures above are the prevailing technical indicator levels at the time the post was published.
Does this bearish judgment by PlanB represent the official stance of the S2F model?
No. PlanB explicitly labeled this judgment as personal opinion (IMO) in the post, and stated that the main function of the S2F model is to describe the relationship between scarcity and long-term asset value, and it is not used for short-term price volatility prediction.
