OPEC+ to increase production by 18.8 thousand barrels per day: the first meeting without the UAE—Saudi-led restraint on the rate of the increase

OPEC+ held its first meeting on May 3 without the UAE in attendance and decided to increase production by 188k barrels per day in June. CNBC reported that the UAE officially exited OPEC on May 1, ending its nearly 60-year role within the OPEC framework. This meeting was attended by seven countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The scale of the production increase was relatively moderate, and there was no direct public response to the UAE’s exit.

UAE exits OPEC: the third-largest oil producer leaves, reshaping influence structures

As of February 2026, the UAE is still OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Its exit from OPEC is one of the most significant member changes in the organization’s 60-year history and has been interpreted externally as “the UAE’s long-term dissatisfaction with its own production quota, choosing to leave in exchange for freedom to produce.” After the exit, the UAE can still independently decide its output, without being constrained by OPEC quotas.

The 188k barrels per day production increase approved at this meeting is the figure jointly shouldered by the seven countries excluding the UAE. If the UAE were still inside the organization, the production increase could be larger. Its exit means OPEC’s influence in “responding to market supply pressure by increasing production” has been diluted.

Saudi Arabia-led restrained production increases: leaving a buffer for the market after Hurmuz is shut

Since the conflict between the US and Iran began on February 28, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively disrupted, and the global oil market has entered a supply-tightening period lasting nearly six months. OPEC+ already raised production modestly twice in April, and this was the third modest boost. Still, the cumulative increase is far from enough to fill the supply gap trapped by Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia’s stance is to “preserve capacity, not release it all at once,” avoiding the market misjudging that OPEC has exhausted spare production capacity available for use. This contrasts with the US, which during the same period has become the “last oil source” at a pace of more than 4 million barrels per day—OPEC wants to keep prices up, the US wants to keep market share, and the UAE wants to keep production freedom.

Next to watch: UAE’s independent production increase trajectory, OPEC+’s June meeting, and US shale capacity

The focus of the next phase is whether the UAE begins to independently ramp up production starting in June. If it makes a substantial increase, it could further push down international oil prices and offset Saudi Arabia’s restrained strategy. OPEC+’s next meeting is expected to be held in June, but whether it will discuss further production increases or issue an official response to the UAE’s exit has not been announced.

Another point to watch is the upper limit of US shale oil production—if Hormuz remains obstructed for the long term, and OPEC+ continues to restrain, the market will rely heavily on the US to fill the gap. In that case, the shale industry’s drilling pace and pipeline capacity will be key variables.

This article, OPEC+ increases production by 188k barrels per day: the first meeting without the UAE, Saudi Arabia leads restrained production increases, first appeared on Lian News ABMedia.