NYDIG shared an assessment stating Bitcoin's current price movements show similarities to past bear markets. According to the firm, the correction period between 2025-2026 is increasingly similar to the classic four-year cycle seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, with Bitcoin predicted to bottom this year in the $38,000 to $39,000 range if this historical pattern repeats. The analysis comes as Bitcoin has lost approximately 50 percent of its value since reaching its all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, reflecting ongoing examination of cryptocurrency market cycles.
Bitcoin Lost 50 Percent Since October 2025 All-Time High
According to NYDIG's analysis, Bitcoin has lost approximately 50 percent of its value since reaching its all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025. This decline shares similarities with sharp corrections seen in previous market cycles. The firm notes that both the magnitude and duration of the decline largely coincide with data from past bear markets.
NYDIG Predicts Bitcoin Bottom in $38,000 to $39,000 Range
If the historical pattern repeats, Bitcoin is predicted to bottom out this year in the $38,000 to $39,000 range. According to the company, the correction period between 2025-2026 is increasingly similar to the classic four-year cycle seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Bitcoin Projected to Underperform Traditional Assets Throughout 2026
The report noted that Bitcoin is projected to underperform not only against cryptocurrencies but also against traditional financial instruments throughout 2026. Safe-haven assets such as US Treasury bonds, silver, and the Swiss franc have outperformed Bitcoin since the beginning of the year. This is attributed to increasing uncertainty in global markets and a decrease in investor risk appetite.
NYDIG Notes Institutional Factors May Differentiate Current Cycle
NYDIG emphasizes that historical cycles do not definitively reflect the future. Analysts point out that while past market movements offer important references, new dynamics such as increasing interest from institutional investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs, macroeconomic developments, and regulatory changes could differentiate the current cycle from previous periods.
FAQ
What price range does NYDIG predict for Bitcoin's bottom?
NYDIG predicts Bitcoin could bottom out this year in the $38,000 to $39,000 range if historical patterns from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 cycles repeat during the current 2025-2026 correction period.
How much has Bitcoin declined since its all-time high?
Bitcoin has lost approximately 50 percent of its value since reaching its all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, according to NYDIG's analysis.
What assets have outperformed Bitcoin in 2026?
Safe-haven assets such as US Treasury bonds, silver, and the Swiss franc have outperformed Bitcoin since the beginning of the year, attributed to increasing uncertainty in global markets and a decrease in investor risk appetite.
