According to PolyBeats monitoring on June 17, in Polymarket’s prediction market for “Whether Messi will become the top scorer at the 2026 World Cup,” the current probability for “Yes” has risen to 23.3%. Directly driving this round of probability increase is Messi’s hat-trick in the first group match of the 2026 World Cup, Argentina vs. Algeria, at minutes 17, 60, and 76, leading Argentina to a 3-0 win.
Messi vs. Algeria: three goals at 17, 60, 76 minutes; the 8th-minute goal was disallowed for offside
Match details are as follows: Messi’s opening goal at the 8th minute was disallowed by the referee for offside; at the 17th minute he unleashed a powerful left-foot shot from the edge of the box to break the deadlock; at the 60th minute, after McAllister’s shot was saved by the goalkeeper, he followed up and scored; at the 76th minute he struck low from outside the box to score, leveling the record for World Cup goals with 16, previously held by Klose. At the 79th minute, Messi was substituted off, and the whole stadium stood and applauded. For Algeria, Shieby’s goal at the 9th minute was also disallowed for offside.
Polymarket Golden Boot top three right now: Mbappé 26%, Messi above 20%, Kane 12%
According to Polymarket Golden Boot market probabilities quoted in the reports (as of the time of the report):
· Mbappé at about 26% (the top favorite; advantage comes from France’s overall title path and the continuity of the 2022 Golden Boot; on the day, France beat Senegal 3-1, with Mbappé scoring twice, and his World Cup career goals rising to 14)
· Messi rising to above about 20% (the core driver is expectations of Argentina going deep and the hat-trick in the opening match)
· Kane at about 12% (supported by England’s squad depth and penalty-taking rights)
In addition, Haaland scored twice in the day’s match as Norway beat Iraq 4-1.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the historical significance of Messi’s hat-trick this time?
According to reports, Messi’s hat-trick against Algeria is his first hat-trick in FIFA-organized competitions; the 16th World Cup goal at the 76th minute tied the World Cup goals record previously held by the former German forward Klose; at the same time, this is Messi’s sixth World Cup appearance, and his country’s team 200th cap (first appearance at age 18 in 2005 to date).
Why is the Polymarket Golden Boot betting account 0x1f7105a1 getting attention?
According to monitoring by PolyBeats, account 0x1f7105a1 has a win rate of 74/99 (74.7%) in the football segment, with net profit reaching $1.35 million, representing a high-win historical performance. This time, the account invested $1,700 in the Messi Golden Boot market and bet “Yes” when the probability was 19.4%; as of the time of the report, the probability has risen to 23.3%.
Does Messi’s injury at the end of the Miami International season affect his World Cup performance?
The report mentions that Messi had a minor hamstring strain at the end of the season, affecting his World Cup preparation status; however, he appeared for 20 minutes in last week’s friendly against Iceland and scored a penalty, and he also completed a hat-trick in the first World Cup match proper. The specific injury assessment is handled by Argentina’s official medical team, and the report does not provide further details.
