KOSPI experienced extreme volatility last week, falling 3.84% as the index dropped below 8000 to 7600 before recovering to close above 8000. Samsung Electronics is scheduled to announce its Q2 preliminary earnings on July 7, with analysts expecting the results to determine near-term market direction. The volatility stemmed from AI sector concerns, including Apple's chipflation worries and Meta's computing rental issues, which triggered doubts about AI industry sustainability. The market now enters earnings season, where confirmed AI capital expenditure trends will test whether global equities can resume their upward trajectory. Analysts project a KOSPI trading range of 7200-9000 for the week as investors await concrete earnings data to resolve uncertainty.
KOSPI Falls 3.84% Last Week Amid AI Sector Concerns
KOSPI declined 3.84% last week while KOSDAQ rose 2.0%. Kim Jong-min, researcher at Samsung Securities, stated that "KOSPI was pushed down to the 7300 level during the week, testing psychological support levels." He explained that "the origin of this decline was also artificial intelligence (AI), as concerns about Apple's 'chipflation' followed by Meta's 'excess computing rental' issue emerged consecutively, and as a result, small seeds of doubt began to sprout about the sustainability of the fiercely expanding AI industry, leading to a major market decline."
Kim added that "the market now stands at an inflection point where it must resolve this doubt about AI peak-out with numbers. If a firm AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) stance is reconfirmed through the upcoming earnings season, global stock markets will resolve doubts and re-enter a bull market based on earnings proof."
Samsung Electronics Q2 Earnings Announcement Scheduled for July 7
Samsung Electronics will announce its Q2 preliminary earnings on July 7, marking the start of the earnings season. Lee Kyung-min, researcher at Daishin Securities, stated that "this week's domestic stock market will enter full-scale Q2 earning season, with Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement on July 7 becoming a turning point."
Lee noted that "Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit 3-month consensus is 85.6 trillion won, and the 1-month consensus is 84.8 trillion won, with earnings forecasts slightly downwardly adjusted recently due to semiconductor demand, profitability controversies, and incentive reflections. Nevertheless, considering that the 3-month consensus was 48.4 trillion won and the 1-month consensus was 54.5 trillion won as of the end of March, the profit momentum is clear and will continue the upward trend based on earnings improvement."
Na Jung-hwan, researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated that "Samsung Electronics' operating profit significantly exceeding consensus would act as a signal of strong memory industry conditions and could serve as a catalyst to convert selling sentiment into holding and追격買收 (chasing buying). However, for the upward trend to continue, the direction for the second half must be confirmed through TSMC and ASML's earnings and hyperscaler CAPEX guidance in mid-July."
Non-Semiconductor Sectors Show Export Growth Momentum
Lee Kyung-min noted the possibility of profit improvement in non-semiconductor sectors. He stated that "recently, non-semiconductor exports increased significantly year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, but operating profit forecasts have formed a consensus of stagnation year-over-year and negative growth quarter-over-quarter, suggesting that earnings expectations are significantly low compared to future export momentum. The possibility of strong Q2 earnings in non-semiconductor sectors, especially export stocks, is high."
Key Economic Data Releases Scheduled This Week
Major scheduled events this week include: the US June ISM services index will be released on the 6th, Samsung Electronics Q2 preliminary earnings on the 7th, the US June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be disclosed on the 9th along with China's June Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), and SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipt (ADR) Nasdaq listing is scheduled for the 10th.
FAQ
Q: What caused KOSPI stocks to fall 3.84% last week?
A: KOSPI fell 3.84% last week due to AI sector concerns, including Apple's chipflation worries and Meta's computing rental issues, which triggered doubts about AI industry sustainability. The index dropped below 8000 to 7600 before recovering to close above 8000.
Q: When will Samsung Electronics announce its Q2 earnings?
A: Samsung Electronics is scheduled to announce its Q2 preliminary earnings on July 7. Analysts expect the announcement to serve as a turning point for the domestic stock market, with the 3-month operating profit consensus at 85.6 trillion won and the 1-month consensus at 84.8 trillion won.
Q: What is the expected trading range for KOSPI stocks this week?
A: NH Investment & Securities projects a KOSPI trading range of 7200-9000 for the week. The range reflects uncertainty as investors await Samsung Electronics' earnings announcement and other key economic data releases scheduled throughout the week.
