Iraq Plans to Restore Crude Oil Output to 4.2–4.3M Barrels/Day; ANZ Forecasts 2–3.5M Barrels/Day Recovery by Q3 2026

According to ANZ, Iraq's upstream deputy minister stated on June 22 that the country plans to restore crude oil production to 4.2–4.3 million barrels per day. ANZ forecasts that initial recovery within four weeks will reach approximately 2–3 million barrels per day, with Q3 2026 potentially seeing 2–3.5 million barrels per day restored, contingent on market stability. However, ANZ warns that 1–2 million barrels per day of supply may be permanently or semi-permanently lost. "Early production recovery will primarily stem from logistics improvements rather than production increases, with later recovery dependent on upstream production and refinery operations resuming," ANZ added, noting full recovery is unlikely in 2026.
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