IEA Forecasts Gulf Oil Supply Rebound to 8M Barrels/Day by 2027, Full Recovery Takes Months

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) on June 17, oil supply from the Gulf region is expected to rebound to 8 million barrels per day by 2027, though full recovery of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will take several months. A temporary U.S.-Iran agreement reached this week represents the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the outbreak of conflict, yet normalization of critical shipping lanes remains gradual.

The IEA revised its 2026 global oil demand forecast downward by an additional 680,000 barrels per day—from a previously estimated 420,000 bpd decline to 1.1 million bpd decline—citing elevated oil prices and severe supply disruptions. Demand is projected to rebound by 2 million barrels per day in 2027 as trade normalizes, oil prices decline, and economic conditions improve.