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HSBC Flags Surging Dollar as Top Risk for H2 2026; Hedge Funds Push Bullish Bets to 16-Month High

GateNews
Forex
According to HSBC research released on Monday, June 29, a sharp surge in the U.S. dollar could become the largest "pain trade" for global markets in the second half of 2026. The Bloomberg Dollar Index hit a seven-month high last month, while hedge fund bullish bets on the dollar reached a 16-month peak, signaling a reflow of capital into dollar assets. HSBC analysts Paul Mackel and others cautioned that risks have escalated since the Federal Reserve's June meeting, when policymakers focused on inflation without providing clear forward guidance, prompting investors to reassess the U.S.-Europe yield spread. The bank also warned of potential risks in the Treasury market if an economic slowdown forces the Fed to pivot toward easing, potentially triggering a steepening yield curve that could rapidly erode positions betting on further flattening.
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