Hong Kong Faces Unprecedented Wave of Lock-Up Expiries This Week; Goldman Sachs Estimates $274 Billion in Locked Shares to Be Released Over Next 12 Months, a Record High; Morgan Stanley Analysts Point to Most Concentrated Secondary Market Selling Pressure in July and September, Potentially Creating Liquidity Headwinds
Six Stocks Face Lock-Up Expiry This Week: Zhipu Up Over 1,200% Since IPO
According to Reuters, major Hong Kong stocks facing lock-up expiries this week include:
· Zhipu (2513.HK): Six-month cornerstone investor lock-up expires Wednesday, with approximately 25.6 million shares unlocked, representing about 6% of circulating shares; the stock has risen over 1,200% since listing
· MiniMax (0100.HK): Approximately 45% of circulating shares unlock this week
· Shanghai Xingguang Xinwei Semiconductor (9903.HK): Approximately 4.3% of circulating shares unlock this week
· Three other companies (six in total) face lock-up expiries in the same week
Goldman Sachs: Record $274 Billion in Locked Shares to Be Released Over 12 Months
According to a Goldman Sachs report cited by Reuters, $274 billion worth of locked shares will be released into the Hong Kong market over the next 12 months, a record high. Goldman Sachs analysts noted in the report that, historically, stock prices typically fall 4% to 7% within 3 to 6 months after issuance.
EY data shows the average first-day return for Hong Kong IPOs in H1 2026 reached 61%; the Hang Seng Index has fallen 8.9% year-to-date, with overall market performance weak—creating a sharp contrast that concentrates profit-taking pressure on some IPO stocks.
Morgan Stanley: July and September See Most Concentrated Secondary Market Selling Pressure
According to a Morgan Stanley analyst report cited by Reuters, secondary market selling pressure will be most concentrated in July and September; analysts said, "Even if fundamentals remain intact, these events could create liquidity headwinds," one of the main reasons Morgan Stanley has recently maintained a cautious stance on the Hong Kong market.
H1 2026 Hong Kong ECM Up 17.8% YoY
According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data, H1 2026 Hong Kong equity capital markets (ECM) activity posted its strongest first-half performance since 2021, with fundraising up 17.8% year-on-year; ECM issuance volume has increased 26.7% since H1 2025.
On the IPO front, 54 deals were completed, up 148.6% year-on-year, the highest first-half count since 2021; the high-tech sector accounted for 36.7% of total Hong Kong ECM activity, with high-tech company IPOs and secondary listings comprising 53.1% of all IPO and secondary listing proceeds (31 deals, compared to just 5 deals in the same period last year).
Chinese issuers accounted for 98.5% of IPO and secondary listing proceeds; the Hong Kong Main Board ranked second globally in IPO and secondary listing market share, behind Nasdaq and ahead of the New York Stock Exchange.
FAQ
Which Hong Kong stocks face lock-up expiry this week, and how significant is the impact?
According to Reuters, a total of six companies face lock-up expiries this week, including Zhipu (2513.HK) with approximately 6% of circulating shares (about 25.6 million shares) unlocking on Wednesday, MiniMax (0100.HK) with approximately 45% of circulating shares, and Shanghai Xingguang Xinwei Semiconductor (9903.HK) with approximately 4.3% of circulating shares also unlocking this week.
What is Goldman Sachs' estimate for Hong Kong's lock-up expiry scale over the next 12 months?
According to a Goldman Sachs report cited by Reuters, $274 billion worth of locked shares will be released into the Hong Kong market over the next 12 months, a record high; Goldman Sachs historical data shows stock prices typically fall 4-7% within 3-6 months after issuance.
How did the Hong Kong IPO market perform in H1 2026?
According to LSEG and EY data, Hong Kong completed 54 IPOs in H1 2026, up 148.6% year-on-year, the highest first-half count since 2021; the average first-day IPO return reached 61%, while the Hang Seng Index has fallen 8.9% year-to-date.
