Hana Securities forecasts that AI-driven growth will deepen economic polarization across consumption, investment, and employment in the United States and globally. The brokerage's recent report identifies AI datacenter infrastructure as the core driver of US non-residential investment, but notes that massive capital requirements concentrate benefits among big tech firms and AI hardware-exporting nations. Low-income US households face reduced discretionary spending due to energy costs and inflation, while high-income consumer sentiment remains stable. The analysis highlights structural divergence between hardware exporters like Korea and Taiwan versus traditional manufacturing economies in Europe.
Low-Income US Households Reduce Discretionary Spending Amid Inflation
Hana Securities reports that US economic growth remains driven by domestic demand, but consumption patterns diverge sharply by income bracket. Low-income households are cutting discretionary spending under pressure from energy costs and inflation, while high-income consumer sentiment stays relatively healthy. The same US consumption data reflects different economic realities depending on income tier, according to the brokerage's analysis.
Top 1% Large Firms Drive AI Physical Capital Investment Growth
Non-residential investment's contribution to US GDP has increased recently, centered on AI datacenters and infrastructure. San Francisco Federal Reserve analysis cited in the Hana Securities report shows that among AI-positive companies, the top 1% of firms by asset size accounted for most of the physical capital investment increase in 2025. AI investment requires massive upfront capital, naturally concentrating spending among big tech companies with large balance sheets.
Hyperscalers Face 10-Year Low Free Cash Flow in Second Half
Hana Securities projects that free cash flow for the five major hyperscalers will fall to a 10-year low in the second half of this year. Big tech firms are significantly increasing external borrowing through corporate bond issuance and structured finance. AI servers have an economic lifespan of only 2–3 years, requiring continuous replacement costs even after datacenter construction. Companies that delay monetization face growing funding burdens and potential market exit, the report states. The analysis also notes rising demand for skilled construction workers due to datacenter buildouts, while information, professional services, and finance sectors with high AI adoption rates face automation risks for certain job functions.
IMF Raises Korea Growth Forecast to 2.6% on AI Hardware Exports
Country-level divergence will widen based on industrial structure, Hana Securities forecasts. The US grows through AI investment but relies heavily on hardware imports, creating spillover benefits for exporting nations. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Malaysia — the top four AI hardware net exporters — are positioned for strengthened growth momentum. The International Monetary Fund raised Korea's growth forecast from 1.9% to 2.6% in its July revised outlook, contrasting with a downward revision of global growth to 3%. Hana Securities economist Jeon Gyu-yeon stated that Europe and traditional manufacturing-focused emerging markets lagging in AI investment and leading company development will face relative weakness.
FAQ
Why is AI investment concentrated among big tech firms?
AI datacenter infrastructure requires massive upfront capital and ongoing replacement costs due to the 2–3 year economic lifespan of AI servers. San Francisco Federal Reserve data shows that among AI-positive companies, the top 1% of firms by asset size accounted for most physical capital investment growth in 2025, as only large-balance-sheet companies can sustain such spending levels.
How did the IMF adjust Korea's growth forecast?
The IMF raised Korea's growth forecast from 1.9% to 2.6% in its July revised economic outlook, citing the country's position as a top AI hardware net exporter. This contrasts with the IMF's downward revision of global growth to 3%, reflecting divergence between hardware-exporting economies and traditional manufacturing regions.
What employment shifts does Hana Securities expect from AI adoption?
The brokerage projects rising demand for skilled construction workers due to datacenter buildouts, while sectors with high AI adoption rates — including information services, professional services, and finance — face automation risks for certain job functions. The gap between workers who can leverage AI and those subject to replacement may widen.
