According to Morgan Stanley, global oil inventories declined at a record pace of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1 and April 25, far exceeding previous quarterly peaks tracked by the International Energy Agency. The rapid depletion, driven by disruptions to Persian Gulf shipping due to the Iran conflict and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz for nearly two months, is eroding critical buffer reserves designed to cushion supply shocks. Crude oil accounted for roughly 60% of the decline, with refined products comprising the remainder. The accelerating drawdown raises the risk of extreme price spikes and supply shortages, while constraining governments’ and industries’ ability to absorb losses exceeding one billion barrels.
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