Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% on June 17 With 98.2% Probability as Warsh Leads First FOMC Meeting

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its target rate range at 3.50%-3.75% on June 17, 2026, with a 98.2% probability, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presides over his first FOMC meeting. Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13 in a narrow 54-45 vote and sworn in on May 22, replacing Jerome Powell. Polymarket traders reflect an even higher 99.3% implied probability of no rate change, with $72.1 million in trading volume. Goldman Sachs has pushed its expected rate cut timeline to 2027, signaling a prolonged hold period ahead, according to Bloomberg.
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