Drake placed a $1.5 million USDT bet on Argentina at +245 odds through crypto betting platform Stake ahead of the July 19 World Cup final. The wager comes despite prediction markets pricing Spain as the 59% favorite, with Polymarket traders committing $158 million to Argentina against $123.5 million on Spain. Drake has lost $5.7 million across public bets since April 30, 2024, according to data from thedrakecurse.com, making this bet a potential opportunity to reverse recent losses in a final scheduled for 3 p.m. ET that pits Argentina's title defense against a young Spain squad.
Drake's Public Betting Record Shows $1.56M Net Loss Since 2022
Drake has placed 87 tracked public bets since February 2022, wagering $38.72 million and collecting $37.17 million in returns, for a net loss of $1.56 million, according to data compiled by thedrakecurse.com. He has won 32 of those bets, a strike rate of 36.8%, with an average stake of $445,080.
Soccer has been his weakest category, costing him $1.67 million across his bets, including a $1 million wager on Argentina against France in the 2022 final that lost on a technicality tied to extra time. Cricket is the only sport where he shows a clear profit, up $997,500.
UFC events draw the most action from him, with $14.45 million placed across 26 bets, a category that includes a $1.45 million win on Jon Jones and a $1.595 million loss on Israel Adesanya. The losses have piled up since April 30, 2024, when Kendrick Lamar released "Euphoria," a stretch that includes a $1 million loss on Conor McGregor against Max Holloway this July and a $1 million loss backing the Patriots in the 2026 Super Bowl.
The Drake Curse Narrative Resurfaces With Argentina Bet
Online, the bet has revived talk of the "Drake Curse," the idea that teams and athletes he backs tend to lose. The pattern traces back to his support of Kentucky basketball in 2013 and Serena Williams at the 2015 U.S. Open, both of which ended in upsets, and continued through Alabama's 2019 title-game loss and the Golden State Warriors' collapse in the 2016 NBA Finals.
Thedrakecurse.com counts roughly 11 instances where he bet on a clear favorite that went on to lose, including the Oklahoma City Thunder at -270 odds in the 2025 NBA Finals. Drake addressed the reputation directly in a Stake advertisement, saying he does not believe in a "curse" and calling himself a flawed bettor, pointing to the Toronto Raptors' 2019 championship as evidence against it.
Polymarket and Kalshi Show Split Between Favorite and Money Flow
On Polymarket, the World Cup winner contract has drawn $4.28 billion in total volume as of July 18, with Spain priced at 59 cents per share and Argentina at 40 cents. Despite Spain's higher implied probability, Polymarket traders have committed $158 million to Argentina against $123.5 million on Spain.
Kalshi's separate Spain-versus-Argentina market shows a similar lean toward Spain as the favorite. The exchange prices Spain at 59%, paying 1.65x on a win, and Argentina at roughly 41%, paying 2.34x. Reported volume figures for the Kalshi market vary by source, ranging from $1.25 billion to $1.29 billion.
Argentina Win Would Net Drake $3.67M in Profit
An Argentina win would net Drake roughly $3.67 million in profit on this single bet. A Spain win would add another data point to the curse narrative and push his soccer losses well past $2.5 million.
Drake's Stake partnership has kept his bets in public view through livestreams and social posts. The arrangement has also drawn scrutiny, including lawsuits alleging the promotions glamorize gambling to younger audiences, claims Drake has pushed back on publicly.
FAQ
What bet did Drake place on the World Cup final?
Drake placed a $1.5 million USDT bet on Argentina at +245 odds through Stake for the July 19 World Cup final scheduled for 3 p.m. ET.
How much has Drake lost in public bets since April 30, 2024?
Drake has lost $5.7 million across his public wagers since April 30, 2024, according to data from thedrakecurse.com.
What do prediction markets show for the World Cup final?
Polymarket prices Spain at 59% and Argentina at 41%, with $158 million staked on Argentina versus $123.5 million on Spain. Kalshi shows similar odds with Spain at 59% paying 1.65x and Argentina at 41% paying 2.34x.
