Dalio: Bitcoin cannot be included in central bank reserves; Strategy challenges with a “fixed supply” argument

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio questioned Bitcoin’s hedging function on X on May 12, saying that Bitcoin cannot compare with gold in terms of central bank reserves, crisis hedging, and long-term stability; Strategy founder Michael Saylor immediately responded on a social platform, saying Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralization cannot be replicated.

Dalio’s Core Arguments

According to reports, Dalio said that a true safe-haven asset must have four characteristics: low volatility, high liquidity, long-term historical credibility, and political neutrality; he believes Bitcoin still faces issues such as sharp price volatility and regulatory uncertainty, and on-chain transactions are highly traceable, lacking true anonymity, which creates additional concerns for sovereign nations and central banks.

Dalio pointed out that when central banks of different countries build reserve assets, they need to consider geopolitical factors, the risk of asset freezes, and financial stability issues; gold has accumulated thousands of years of trust in history, while Bitcoin is still in a relatively early stage. According to reports, Dalio himself has previously said he holds a small amount of Bitcoin, acknowledging that Bitcoin has some value as a store of value, but for a long time he has consistently believed gold is the more mature global reserve asset.

Saylor’s Rebuttal

According to reports, Saylor said on a social platform that Bitcoin’s biggest advantage lies in its fixed supply and decentralized architecture; compared with gold, which still has problems related to mining, custody, transportation, and supply increasing, Bitcoin has more clear-cut scarcity and global liquidity. Saylor also emphasized that Bitcoin is an open financial network where anyone can quickly transfer assets anywhere in the world, something that gold cannot achieve.

Saylor also noted that Bitcoin’s volatility is part of the growth process of a new asset; as the market grows and institutional capital enters, future price volatility could gradually decline.

Market Backdrop: Central Banks Increasing Gold Holdings and Bitcoin’s Institutionalization

According to data from the World Gold Council, over the past two years, global central bank gold purchases have continued to set historical highs, with countries including China, Russia, the Middle East, and emerging markets all increasing their gold reserve ratios. At present, the number of countries that officially include Bitcoin in their reserves is still quite limited, with main cases concentrated in a few countries such as El Salvador.

In terms of institutional capital, after the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, traditional financial funds began allocating to Bitcoin through compliant channels; large financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Fidelity have also gradually expanded coverage of related products.

Common Questions

What are the core reasons Dalio questioned Bitcoin entering central bank reserves?

According to reports, Dalio believes that a true safe-haven asset must have low volatility, high liquidity, long-term historical credibility, and political neutrality; Bitcoin has issues such as sharp price volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and the traceability of on-chain transactions, which do not meet the requirements of sovereign nations and central bank reserves.

How did Michael Saylor rebut Dalio’s arguments?

According to reports, Saylor said on a social platform that Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized architecture are advantages that gold cannot replicate, with more clear-cut scarcity and open global transfer capability; Bitcoin’s volatility is part of the growth process of a new asset.

What is the current situation regarding central bank gold increases and official Bitcoin adoption globally?

According to World Gold Council data, over the past two years, global central bank gold purchases have continued to set historical highs; at present, the number of countries that officially include Bitcoin in their reserves is still quite limited, with main cases concentrated in a few countries such as El Salvador.