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Commonwealth Bank Predicts Middle East War Will Persist, 55% Probability for Two More Months

2026-07-21 07:41:22

According to Commonwealth Bank economist Madison Cartwright on July 21, the central bank predicts the Middle East war will likely persist, with a 55% probability of current conflict intensity continuing over the next two months. The bank expects diplomatic outcomes to become more viable after two months, enabling negotiations for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Commonwealth Bank assesses a 30% risk of further military escalation within the same timeframe.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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