CNBC reported on May 27 that Musk had discussed with people around him the possibility of merging Tesla and SpaceX, and some Tesla employees also have long believed that, given the increasing overlap between the two businesses, consolidation is possible. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives confirmed that his assessment of the likelihood of a Tesla–SpaceX merger is about 80%.
Confirmed Details of Existing Cooperation Between the Two and CapEx Data by CNBC
Reports from CNBC and Benzinga confirm that Tesla and SpaceX have carried out substantive collaboration across multiple fronts. The specific cooperation items that have been confirmed include: Tesla investing $2 billion in xAI; SpaceX purchasing Tesla Megapack energy storage systems to power the Colossus data center; SpaceX purchasing Cybertruck vehicles; and Nvidia, at Musk’s request, transferring a previously allocated $500 million GPU order from Tesla to xAI. On the capital expenditure side, SpaceX’s first-quarter capital expenditures reached $10.1 billion, with more than three-quarters related to AI; Tesla’s capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to rise to more than $25 billion. Both companies have significantly accelerated AI infrastructure buildout.
Analysts on Their Confirmed Stances Toward the Integration Plan
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the likelihood of integrating Tesla and SpaceX is about 80%, based on the continued synergy between the two in engineering talent, AI direction, and infrastructure construction. Ives’s probability is a personal analyst assessment and is not based on any official disclosures or records of formal merger talks.
Ross Gerber takes a cautious stance on the potential deal, believing its shape is closer to SpaceX bringing Tesla into a broader framework led by Musk, rather than an equal merger. Gary Black, meanwhile, warned that if investors evaluate the deal’s financial terms poorly, such integration will put pressure on Tesla’s valuation.
FAQ
What is the specific source behind CNBC’s claim that Musk “discussed a merger”?
According to CNBC’s Tuesday report, the claim comes from people familiar with the matter, saying that Musk had discussed merger ideas with those around him, and that some Tesla employees have long believed consolidation is possible. CNBC’s information is based on anonymous sources familiar with the matter, and Musk himself has not publicly confirmed it.
What business links between Tesla and SpaceX are currently confirmed?
Based on the confirmed reports by CNBC and Benzinga, known business links include: Tesla investing $2 billion in xAI; SpaceX purchasing Tesla Megapack and Cybertruck; Nvidia shifting a $500 million GPU order from Tesla to xAI; and the two companies sharing parts of their executive and engineering talent, with some suppliers treating them as a unified customer.
Is Dan Ives’s 80% integration probability an official research report or a personal assessment?
Dan Ives’s 80% probability is a personal analyst assessment, based on his observations of the two companies’ business synergy trends. It is not based on any official disclosure of a merger plan or formal financial documents, and does not constitute an official position of Tesla or SpaceX.
