CME FedWatch Shows Market Shifts Fed Rate Hold Probability from 91% to 64% After Decision

According to CME FedWatch, after the Federal Reserve decision on June 18, market pricing for rate hikes shifted significantly. For July, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates held at 64%, down from 91% pre-decision, while cumulative rate hike odds rose to 35.1% (from 8.9%).

For December, odds of no change dropped to 14.2% from 38.2%. Cumulative 100 basis point hikes by year-end now trade at 2.1% probability, up sharply from 0.1% pre-decision, reflecting market expectations for two potential rate increases before 2026 closes.