Citigroup Expects Aluminum to Bottom Within a Month, Rally to $3,500 by Year-End

According to Citigroup, aluminum prices are expected to touch bottom within the next month and rally to $3,300–$3,500 per ton between September and December, driven by dovish Federal Reserve policy, declining real rates, and improved demand outlook.

Aluminum prices have fallen approximately 20% from around $4,450 per ton over the past month, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand, slower inventory drawdowns, easing geopolitical tensions, and position liquidation. The bank attributed recent weakness partly to expectations of rising future supply, though it noted current market conditions remain in supply deficit with new supply unlikely to quickly offset demand growth.