BTC rises slightly over 15 minutes by 0.29%: Oil prices plunge as the Iran-Iraq ceasefire takes hold amid a standoff over expectations for the Fed’s rate decision

From 2026-07-27 16:30 to 16:45 (UTC), BTC edged slightly higher within 15 minutes, with a yield of +0.29%. The price range was 64,734.6–64,967.4 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.36%. The daily chart closed nearly flat (-0.03%), with a filled amount of only 377.4 BTC. Ahead of the Fed’s July rate decision, the market is in a wait-and-see mode, and both long and short forces are temporarily balanced.

The main driver behind this move is the macro hedging effect stemming from a pause in attacks in the Iran–Iraq conflict. Both sides have paused attacks for the second consecutive day; international oil prices fell by more than 4%, easing prior inflation expectations triggered by an escalation in the Middle East conflict. In theory, this is beneficial for risk assets. At the same time, the U.S. dollar also weakened slightly, giving BTC a brief window to catch its breath. However, the reaction has been mild overall, maintaining only a small positive return.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risk remains uncertain. An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz struck a mine and exploded, and Iran has threatened retaliation, highlighting the fragility of the ceasefire. In addition, expectations for the Fed’s July meeting remain that rates will stay unchanged, but it may pave the way for a September rate hike. Two-year Treasury yields have stayed above 4% continuously since mid-May, complicating the inflation outlook. On the miner side, Bitdeer sold off all June production; after the halving, miners’ revenue pressure has intensified, creating potential sell pressure on the supply side in the medium term. Gold has returned above $4,100, setting up competition for capital versus BTC. With multiple factors overlapping, overall momentum has still been limited and has not enabled BTC to break out meaningfully.

BTC is currently quoted at about $65,327, with a 24-hour increase of 1.00%. The order book depth is extremely thin (buy/sell depth ratio is 2.44, but total open order volume is very low), and liquidity is extremely scarce. Near-term support to watch is $64,600, while resistance is $65,750. Next, the key focus is the Fed’s July rate decision and the wording in its statement, as well as the persistence of the Iran–Iraq ceasefire. If expectations for a September rate hike strengthen or the conflict escalates again, BTC could face significant pressure. Volatility risk remains; it’s recommended to monitor changes in the filled amount to confirm whether any directional breakout is effective.