BTC rises slightly by 0.37% in 15 minutes: The escalation of the US-Iran conflict triggered a surge in oil prices, as expectations of rate hikes were reshaped, increasing pressure on risk assets

From 23:45 on July 13, 2026, to 00:00 on July 14 (UTC), BTC inched up 0.37% within 15 minutes. The price traded in a range of $62,106.0–$62,350.8 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.39%. Despite a modest short-term rebound, BTC fell 2.99% cumulatively over the past 24 hours, dropping from a $64,328 peak to around $62,402. The market is clearly in an overall downtrend channel, with volatility significantly amplifying.

The core driver behind this unusual move is the continued escalation of military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the U.S. The U.S. Central Command launched multiple rounds of strikes against Iranian targets. Iran retaliated by attacking countries with U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf, pushing the conflict into its second week. Oil prices surged to around $80 per barrel, up about 4%, driving markets to reprice the Fed’s rate-hike path. The CME FedWatch shows the probability of a July rate hike at 46.5%. A high interest rate environment puts systematic sell pressure on non-yielding assets like BTC, as capital continues to flow out of crypto markets.

Meanwhile, technical signals further intensify short-term downside momentum. On the 1-hour timeframe, ADX=37.6 indicates the downtrend has strong momentum; the bid/ask depth ratio in the order book is only 0.38, with sell-side strength about 2.6 times that of the buy side. At the $62,395.8 level, a large sell wall covers 65.3% of the top 5 order book levels, indicating clear institutional distribution intentions. Gold is also falling by over 1%, suggesting the market chose “rate suppression” over “inflation hedging,” and BTC failed to benefit from the safe-haven narrative.

In the short term, watch whether the Iran-U.S. conflict further escalates and leads to a real closure of the Strait of Hormuz—if oil breaks above $100, it could further increase sell pressure on BTC. Technically, the key support level is $61,826 (24h low); if it breaks, BTC may test the $60,000 psychological level. It’s recommended to monitor oil price action, changes in FedWatch rate-hike probability, and BTC spot ETF fund flows. Short-term volatility risk remains.