From 00:00 to 00:00 UTC on June 11, 2026 to June 12, 2026, BTC’s return was +0.28%, with a price range of 61,516.8–61,693.9 USDT and a volatility of 0.29%. The market showed a narrow-range fluctuation pattern; after hedging from geopolitical positive developments and a liquidity-absorption effect, it closed slightly higher.
The main driver behind this move was the dramatic easing of the US-Iran conflict. On June 11, during the morning in U.S. Eastern Time, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the cancellation of the scheduled military strikes against Iran that evening, and said Iran’s top leadership had approved a draft multi-national consensus agreement, including extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and initiating 60 days of Iranian nuclear talks. Crude oil futures plunged by more than 4% on the news: WTI fell to $86.2 and Brent to $88.66. The drop in oil prices reduced macro uncertainty, easing concerns about Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations. Risk-asset sentiment improved overall: gold rose by about 2% that day, U.S. stock index futures gained across the board, and Bitcoin, as a risk-sensitive asset, received support.
Second, the largest IPO in SpaceX’s history listed on Nasdaq on the same day, creating a significant liquidity-absorption effect. The IPO planned to raise $75 billion, valuing it at about $1.75 trillion. Investor subscription demand exceeded $250 billion (an oversubscription of 3.5–4 times). Analysts warned that the AI boom and large IPOs are siphoning away liquidity that might otherwise flow back into Bitcoin. In addition, in May, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.3 billion, the largest monthly net outflow since 2026. Institutional investors continued to reduce BTC holdings; the share of 13F investors in total assets of Bitcoin ETFs fell from 24.7% to 20.8%, creating background selling pressure.
Current market volatility risks are concentrated in the following areas: the cash-siphoning effect of the SpaceX IPO may persist for several trading days after listing; the US-Iran agreement is still in draft stage, and any reversals before formal signing within 60 days could trigger market volatility; institutional confidence is still in the process of recovering, so the change in subsequent ETF capital flows should be closely monitored.
