BTC drops sharply in 15 minutes, down 0.48%: geopolitical risk and capital outflows converge, triggering a short-term sell-off

Between 07:30 and 07:45 UTC on May 29, 2026, BTC’s return rate recorded -0.48%, with a price range of 73,401.8 to 73,763.9 USDT and a range of 0.49%. During this period, the price fell from around $73,700 to the $73,300 area, showing a clear short-term pressure trend. Market sentiment was bearish, and volatility expanded significantly compared with the previous few days.

The main driving force behind this abnormal move is the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military carried out defensive strikes against Iranian drones, and investors’ concerns about worsening conditions in the Middle East led to a decline in risk appetite, with funds rapidly exiting risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

In addition, on-chain data and ETF fund flows further reinforced the selling pressure. The average weekly BTC inflow at a major exchange surged from 378 BTC on May 16 to around 1,190 BTC recently. Daily inflows at one point exceeded 3,600 BTC, and exchange reserves increased by 1.6 ten thousand BTC within a month. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw net outflows for 6 consecutive trading days, with a total redemption size of $1.26 billion. On-chain transfer activity by large holders also heightened market concerns—on May 25, a transfer of 2,650 BTC to trading entities, while not directly equivalent to selling, increased potential supply pressure. Technically, the RSI fell below 30 into oversold territory. OBV confirmed a “roller-coaster top” reversal pattern, and selling momentum was further released.

In the short term, further downside risk should be watched closely. The key support level is currently at $71,402; if it breaks, it may test the $70,000 psychological level. Exchange “whale” activity is at a ten-month high, and liquidity fragility has increased. However, the 200-day moving average remains in an upward trend, and the long-term technical structure has not been fully broken. The oversold condition may be building a technical rebound. Going forward, focus should be on how the geopolitical situation evolves, ETF fund flow direction, and how support performs around $71,402.