BTC drops 0.39% in 15 minutes: short-term selling pressure triggered by the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict and a simultaneous outlook for higher interest rates

From 01:30 to 01:45 (UTC) on July 17, 2026, BTC fell 0.39% over 15 minutes, trading in a range of 63,718.5 to 63,978.5 USDT, with a spread of 0.41%. Market volatility increased, trading volume remained relatively low, reflecting a pullback driven by short-term wait-and-see sentiment.

The main driver behind this anomaly is a sharp escalation in the military conflict between the US and Iran. The US launched another round of strikes against Iran’s Bandar Abbas port and naval facilities, while Iran carried out retaliatory attacks on US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, severely threatening shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged by more than 9% over five days, sparking strong concerns that inflation will heat up, with risk assets visibly under pressure.

Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Logan publicly urged the Fed to “raise rates moderately” to address persistently high inflation, reinforcing market expectations for tighter liquidity. Gold dipped only slightly by 0.8%, while BTC fell more sharply, indicating a decline in capital appetite for risk assets. In addition, ETH’s relatively strong performance suggests signs of capital rotating from BTC to ETH, further worsening BTC’s relative weakness.

Current market risk is concentrated in two uncertainties: geopolitical escalation and monetary policy. Key things to watch are whether the US-Iran conflict continues to expand, the trajectory of oil prices, and officials’ remarks before the end of July FOMC meeting. Technically, the 4-hour MA shows a bullish alignment, but the short-cycle ADX is extremely low, suggesting the trend is not yet clear. The key support level is 63,855 USDT, and the resistance to watch is 65,000 USDT. Order book liquidity is extremely thin—large sell orders alone can create significant pressure. It is recommended to monitor subsequent changes in oil, inflation expectations, and the DXY.