Brent trades above 114, WTI +3.3%: Trump plans to expand the blockade of Iranian ports

International oil prices extended their multi-day rally on April 29. During intraday trading, Brent crude broke above $114 and peaked at about $115. The June WTI futures contract was quoted at $103.18, up 3.3% on the day. According to CNBC’s April 29 report, the driver behind this rally is signals from the Trump administration as it drafts plans to expand the blockade of Iranian ports—an escalation in the U.S.’s Iran strategy after Trump, on 4/28, claimed via the White House that Iran “entered collapse.”

Price action: Brent rose for eight straight days, and WTI has gained more than 49% since the start of the war

Brent’s June delivery futures contract was quoted at $114.37, up about 3.04% on the day. During the session, it once touched the $115 level—marking eight consecutive trading days of gains. June WTI futures climbed in tandem to $103.18, up 3.3% on the day. Since February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli leaders launched the war on Iran, WTI’s cumulative increase has already exceeded 49%.

Beyond the oil price itself, the market trading tempo across the broader energy supply chain is also changing. After the UAE exited OPEC and OPEC+ on 5/1, OPEC lost its third-largest oil-producing country, further undermining a supply response mechanism that was already difficult to coordinate. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been under a blockade over the past several weeks. According to earlier estimates by OilPrice, Gulf oil-producing countries have been forced to shut in a combined capacity of about 9.1 million barrels per day. If this figure holds, and with the U.S. expanding its blockade of Iranian ports, pressure on global oil supply will not ease in the short term.

Motivation: WSJ reports Trump plans to expand the blockade of Iranian ports

The main catalyst for this rally is a Tuesday (4/28) report by The Wall Street Journal that cited reports from U.S. officials. It said Trump will escalate pressure on Iran’s economy and oil export, including by preventing ships from entering and exiting Iranian ports. If this report is accurate, it means the U.S. strategy shifts from “pushing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz” to “actively blocking the operation of Iran’s own ports”—two completely different operational logics.

On 4/29, Trump himself made back-to-back remarks about Iran on Truth Social. The phrasing included a warning to Iran’s leadership that they “should be smart and quickly,” and criticism that within the regime there is “fighting among each other and chaos everywhere.” Overall, his posture stayed consistent with the previous day’s external claim that Iran had “already notified the U.S. that it is in collapse”—publicly framing Iran’s leadership as an opponent “in a weak position and behaving irrationally.”

It should be noted that, before the article deadline, the Iranian government had not publicly responded to Trump’s plan to expand the blockade, so how smooth the communication channels between the two sides really are remains a black box. For the market, this is the core logic behind oil prices continuing to rise: if investors can’t see progress on negotiations every day, the market keeps pricing in longer-term risks of supply disruptions.

Key items to watch next include: whether the U.S. formally announces the expansion of the blockade measures and the timing of when they take effect; Iran’s military or diplomatic response; whether other oil-producing countries (especially Saudi Arabia) increase production to ease supply pressure; and whether Brent breaks $120— the latter would require the 2026 global inflation trajectory to be recalibrated.

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