Asset management firm Bitwise released a crypto market report on June 8, characterizing Bitcoin (BTC) as a macro “canary” asset, arguing that its decline precedes the weakening of global risk assets. BTC and Ethereum (ETH) each dipped to cycle lows of $58,000 and $1,507, respectively; on the same day, the Nasdaq Composite saw a daily drop of 5% (the largest in months), and South Korea’s KOSPI triggered a circuit-breaker mechanism due to sell-offs in semiconductor stocks.
Macro and market data confirmed in Bitwise’s report
Data confirmed by Bitwise in its June 8 report:
BTC cycle low: $58,000; ETH cycle low: $1,507
Nasdaq daily drop: 5% (largest in months)
South Korea’s KOSPI: sell-off in semiconductors triggers intraday circuit-breaker mechanism
10-year US Treasury yield: hit 4.68% last month (one-year high), held at 4.53% on Tuesday
Global M2 liquidity: about $122.6 trillion (reported by the data in the report)
BTC’s pullback from its all-time high: down more than 50% from the $126,000 all-time high
Observation framework cited by Bitwise in the report: As a 24/7 traded asset, BTC in the previous cycle had weakened ahead of the stock market for months. This is Bitwise’s analytical framework, not an official policy statement.
Maartunn confirms SSR on-chain indicators and definitions
Independent market analyst Maartunn confirmed the following data on X:
SSR RSI has fallen to 13 (entering the oversold range).
SSR indicator explanation: SSR (stablecoin supply ratio) = Bitcoin market cap ÷ total market cap of major stablecoins (USDT + USDC); the lower the value, the higher the stablecoin valuation relative to bitcoin, meaning the market has relatively ample available stablecoin funding. In its statement, Maartunn also noted that in historical data, similar SSR RSI readings appeared near the market accumulation zone; this is a historical comparison analysis, not a forward-looking prediction.
Exchange stablecoin reserve status (confirmed data)
As of the date Bitwise’s report was released, total combined reserves of major stablecoins on exchanges were: USDT about $57.7 billion, USDC about $12.0 billion, for a total of about $72.0 billion. This reserve level is down from the peak of over $80.0 billion at the end of 2025, but remains relatively high according to the historical reference in Bitwise’s report.
Common questions
How does Bitwise define Bitcoin’s “macro canary” role?
In its June 8 report, Bitwise cites historical observations, saying that as a 24/7 traded asset, BTC in the previous cycle had weakened ahead of traditional stock markets for months, and uses a divergence versus BTC’s price relative to the Nasdaq index and global M2 as supporting evidence. This framework is Bitwise’s analytical synthesis, not a public statement by an official statistics or regulatory body.
What exactly does SSR RSI falling to 13 mean?
SSR RSI falling to 13, based on technical-indicator classification, is in the oversold range (typically RSI below 30 is considered oversold). A value of 13 indicates that the stablecoin supply ratio has rapidly dropped to a relatively low point over a recent period—i.e., bitcoin’s market value has declined while stablecoin market value has relatively increased. Maartunn cited historical data showing that similar readings appeared near the market accumulation zone; this is historical statistical analysis, not a predictive statement about the current cycle’s price action.
What is the direct reason behind this macro sell-off trigger?
According to Bitwise’s report and publicly available market data, the direct trigger for this sell-off was better-than-expected U.S. labor market data (specific figures were not listed in the report). The data weakened market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s near-term rate cuts, reinforced the “higher for longer” rate expectation, and pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to hit 4.68% last month (a one-year high).
