Bitwise Analyst Sees Up to 20% Further Bitcoin Downside, $48,000 'Max Pain' Level

According to The Block's interview with Bitwise Head of Research Europe André Dragosch on Thursday at BTC Prague, Bitcoin could face as much as 20% additional downside from current levels, with a "max pain" scenario pegged at $48,000. Dragosch identified key structural support levels at the 200-week moving average near $61,000, realized price around $56,000, and long-term holder cost basis at approximately $48,000.

Bitcoin fell roughly 28% from a May high near $82,000 to below $60,000 during the latest drawdown, and traded over $63,300 on Friday with a market capitalization of about $1.3 trillion. Galaxy's base-case scenario projects a potential bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 sometime between now and Q4 2026, as the firm notes that only four of 13 historical bottoming indicators have been triggered so far.