Bitunix Analyst: The market is beginning to reassess the balance between "cooling employment" and "persistent high inflation"

BlockBeats News, May 7 — The market focus is gradually shifting from the Middle East conflict itself to the subsequent impact of the conflict on the U.S. economy and inflation. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are still progressing, and Trump also stated that the dialogue between both sides over the past 24 hours was “very productive.” Market concerns about further escalation of the geopolitical situation have noticeably cooled, and crude oil prices have fallen back from their highs to around $95.

However, energy pressures have not truly disappeared. Although crude oil has retreated, gasoline prices in the U.S. are approaching a high of $4.50 per gallon, a significant increase of about 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating that upstream supply chain and transportation cost pressures are still being transmitted to the end market. This also puts the Federal Reserve in a more complex situation: economic data is beginning to slow down, but inflation is still unlikely to decline rapidly in the short term.

The latest U.S. April “small non-farm” employment report added 109k jobs, slightly above market expectations, indicating that while the labor market has cooled, there is no obvious stall. The market’s current focus is no longer whether the economy will immediately enter recession, but whether the slowdown in employment is sufficient to gradually suppress wages and service-sector inflation, thereby influencing the Fed’s subsequent policy pace.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) retreated after challenging $82,000. Currently, the market is paying attention to the liquidity absorption around $80,000. Derivatives data shows open interest (OI) decreased by 5.13% over 24 hours. Although the funding rate has remained negative over the past 7 days, the magnitude of the negative rate has shrunk. This indicates that the market’s leverage overheating is cooling down, and hedging sentiment among shorts has slightly eased, but overall market sentiment remains cautious.