Macro investor Jordi Visser said on Saturday that Bitcoin reclaiming its 200-day moving average would trigger 'the beginning of the next phase of crypto.' Speaking on Anthony Pompliano's podcast, Visser specified this threshold as 'north of 70' thousand dollars, potentially occurring in the second half of the year, contingent on three conditions: markets overestimating Fed hawkishness, cooling inflation, and intact AI earnings growth. He also warned that a major bank cyberattack could push global markets down 10% in a single day and expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged despite hawkish pricing.
Bitcoin Technical Threshold and Market Sentiment
Visser stated the thesis would be confirmed 'if it gets above the 200-day' moving average, putting the level 'north of 70' thousand dollars. He said, 'We'll see if it happens in the second half of the year. I think it will.' Sentiment around Bitcoin has reached an extreme, Visser noted, estimating that 60-70% of past holders 'are questioning any involvement they've had.' He said he sees no reason to position for upside 'until it gets above the 200-day,' but argued the bearish narrative is old. Bitcoin was trading at $62,970, up 0.5% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the 'bullish' zone, while chatter moved to 'low' from 'normal' levels over the past day.
Bitcoin Positioned as Best Performer Among Asset Classes
Bitcoin will be 'the best performer,' Visser said, outperforming stocks, bonds and commodities such as silver. He pointed to a volatility gap: Bitcoin now trades near a 30 vol, he said, while the tech momentum index has traded at an 85 vol over the past 60 days — 'higher than any time over the last 25 years,' including the dot-com era. That dynamic, he argued, will make it more difficult for institutions to take on long crowded equity trades.
AI Trade Faces Mid-Cycle Slowdown
Visser tied the Bitcoin call to what he described as a 'mid-cycle slowdown' in the AI trade, saying the easy cash in infrastructure names is gone. 'These headwinds are not going away,' he said, citing growing government scrutiny of model companies, delays in permitting data centers and competition from Chinese open-source models. He cited the sell-off in Micron Technology following strong earnings as a warning sign, saying, 'When you sell off on great news, that is not a good sign.' MU stock closed over 5% on Friday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around MU remained in the 'bullish' zone, while chatter stayed at 'high' levels over the past day.
Still, the hardware expansion is nascent, said Visser, with 'a $90 trillion build-out' in memory, infrastructure and humanoid robotics, he projected. Memory demand is insatiable, he said, telling investors to watch Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung, although he said memory stocks should now return 30% to 40% a year rather than '30 to 40% a week.'
Monetary Policy and Inflation Outlook
Markets overreacted to recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on monetary policy, and the central bank would remain on hold despite rate-hike pricing, Visser said. Warsh's focus on AI-led productivity brought to mind the Greenspan-era strategy of not overreacting to near-term inflation prints, he said. He said he expects a negative June CPI print, driven by lower energy prices.
Cybersecurity Risk Warning
Visser warned of a possible cyberattack-induced shock within a year, adding that a major bank hack could push global markets down 10% in a single day.
FAQ
What technical level does Jordi Visser say Bitcoin needs to reclaim for the next crypto phase?
Visser said Bitcoin reclaiming its 200-day moving average, positioned 'north of 70' thousand dollars, would trigger 'the beginning of the next phase of crypto,' potentially in the second half of the year.
Why does Visser expect Bitcoin to outperform other asset classes?
Visser pointed to a volatility gap: Bitcoin trades near a 30 vol while the tech momentum index has traded at an 85 vol over the past 60 days — 'higher than any time over the last 25 years,' including the dot-com era. This dynamic makes it more difficult for institutions to take on long crowded equity trades, he argued.
What warning did Visser give about cybersecurity risks?
Visser warned of a possible cyberattack-induced shock within a year, stating that a major bank hack could push global markets down 10% in a single day.
