Bitcoin rose nearly 10% over the past week to around $64,023, touching a two-week high above $64,500. Market maker Wintermute characterized the move as a 'textbook relief rally' driven by easing macroeconomic conditions, a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, and improving headlines around Ethereum and institutional adoption. Bitcoin remains down approximately 50% from its October record of $126,080, and Wintermute stated it wants to see sustained inflows before treating the rally as a genuine reversal.
Bitcoin Rally Reaches Two-Week High
Bitcoin traded around $64,023 after rising nearly 10% over the past week. The price touched a two-week high above $64,500 during the period. Ethereum rose 13.54% during the same bounce to about $1,791, outpacing Bitcoin's gain. Wintermute's data showed whales accumulated more than 270,000 BTC near Bitcoin's 200-week moving average during the period.
Wintermute Identifies Three Key Drivers
Wintermute pointed to three drivers behind the move: easing macroeconomic conditions, a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, and improving headlines around Ethereum and institutional adoption. The firm said in a market update: 'This looks like a textbook relief rally, and it makes sense given the input.' One catalyst was US payroll data that came in at 57,000 jobs against expectations of about 110,000. The miss pushed traders to reprice the odds of a further Federal Reserve rate hike to around 25%, and Bitcoin gained ground alongside other risk assets.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Resume After 10-Day Streak
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds snapped a 10-day outflow streak with $222 million in inflows on July 2, followed by $265 million on Monday. Before that, the funds had recorded outflows for 10 straight sessions. Year-to-date net outflows for Bitcoin ETFs total $5.4 billion. BlackRock's IBIT kept seeing redemptions even as the headline flows turned positive.
Wintermute Cautions on Sustainability
Wintermute said it wants to see inflows sustained across consecutive sessions before it reads the bounce as a genuine reversal. The firm stated: 'Until that broader capital flow picture actually turns, this reads as relief rather than something structural.' Wintermute's stated position is that the rally rests on easing macro conditions and a short run of ETF inflows, and that the firm needs a longer stretch of buying before treating the move as a lasting shift.
FAQ
What drove Bitcoin's 10% rally over the past week?
Wintermute identified three drivers: easing macroeconomic conditions, a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, and improving headlines around Ethereum and institutional adoption. US payroll data came in at 57,000 jobs against expectations of about 110,000, pushing traders to reprice Federal Reserve rate hike odds to around 25%.
How much have Bitcoin ETFs seen in inflows recently?
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $222 million in inflows on July 2 and $265 million on Monday, snapping a 10-day outflow streak. Year-to-date net outflows for Bitcoin ETFs total $5.4 billion.
What is Wintermute's outlook on the Bitcoin rally?
Wintermute characterized the move as a 'textbook relief rally' and stated it wants to see sustained inflows across consecutive sessions before treating the bounce as a genuine reversal. The firm said: 'Until that broader capital flow picture actually turns, this reads as relief rather than something structural.'
