Bitcoin May Find Bottom in $46K-$54K Range, Says Glassnode Co-Founder Rafael

According to Glassnode co-founder Rafael, Bitcoin currently trading around $62,000 has entered a valuation cluster historically associated with market bottoms, down nearly 50% from all-time highs and 24% over the past month. Rafael analyzed recent price action, noting BTC has broken below the median holder break-even level for the first time since December 2022, now testing broader support zones including the median realized price at $64,100 and the 200-week moving average at $61,700.

Rafael identified a high-probability bottom range between $46,000 and $54,000, with extreme sell-offs potentially reaching $35,000-$40,000. The analyst highlighted that drawdown magnitudes are shrinking across cycles—prior lows saw 85%, 84%, and 77% declines, while the current cycle shows only a 50% drop—suggesting the likely bottom lies in the upper range, though extreme selling scenarios remain possible.