Bitcoin is displaying technical bottom signals that match patterns seen near its 2015, 2019 and 2022 cycle lows, according to analyst Ali Martinez. The current setup combines a monthly RSI near 43.65, a Chande Momentum Oscillator around -71 and a test of the 50-month moving average. Separately, analyst Crypto Patel identified a weekly bullish divergence similar to the formation that appeared near the November 2022 market bottom, with price recording a lower low while the RSI formed a higher low. Previous occurrences of these technical patterns preceded major rallies, though Bitcoin briefly moved below initial signal levels in some cycles and on-chain indicators such as MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a decline toward $40,000–$50,000.
Bitcoin Recreates Three-Part Bottom Signal From Past Cycles
Bitcoin has recreated a three-part technical setup that appeared near its 2015, 2019 and 2022 cycle bottoms, according to analyst Ali Martinez. The signal combines a monthly RSI near 43.65, a Chande Momentum Oscillator around -71 and a test of the 50-month moving average.
Previous appearances preceded major long-term rallies, although Bitcoin briefly moved below the initial signal level in some cycles. The current alignment therefore suggests a possible macro bottoming region rather than confirming that the lowest price is already in.
On-chain indicators such as MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a decline toward $40,000–$50,000. Holding the 50-month moving average would strengthen the bottoming case, while a sustained loss of it could expose that lower on-chain support zone.
Weekly Bullish Divergence Targets $116,000 Resistance Zone
Bitcoin has formed a weekly bullish divergence similar to the signal that appeared near the November 2022 market bottom, according to Crypto Patel. Price recorded a lower low while the relative strength index formed a higher low, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening.
The previous setup preceded a gain of more than 100% over roughly 150 days. Based on that comparison, Patel believes Bitcoin could approach $116,000 before November 2026, though one historical example cannot confirm the same outcome.
Bitcoin must first clear resistance near $82,750 and $97,700. Breaking both levels would strengthen the case for a move toward $116,000, while the chart's next major resistance sits near $123,400. Losing the recent low would weaken the divergence and delay the bullish scenario.
FAQ
What technical signals is Bitcoin showing that match past cycle bottoms?
Bitcoin is displaying a three-part setup combining a monthly RSI near 43.65, a Chande Momentum Oscillator around -71 and a test of the 50-month moving average, according to analyst Ali Martinez. This pattern appeared near Bitcoin's 2015, 2019 and 2022 cycle bottoms and preceded major long-term rallies in those instances.
What price target does the bullish divergence suggest for Bitcoin?
Analyst Crypto Patel identified a weekly bullish divergence similar to the November 2022 setup, which preceded a gain of more than 100% over roughly 150 days. Based on that comparison, Patel believes Bitcoin could approach $116,000 before November 2026, though Bitcoin must first clear resistance near $82,750 and $97,700.
What on-chain support levels exist if Bitcoin loses the 50-month moving average?
On-chain indicators such as MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a decline toward $40,000–$50,000 if Bitcoin sustains a loss of the 50-month moving average, according to the source analysis.
