According to Coin Metrics data, Bitcoin fell 13% this week, marking the largest single-week drop since February; SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows for the 13th consecutive trading day, setting the longest consecutive outflow streak since they launched in January 2024. Total ETF assets fell from $107.8 billion on May 14 to $82.8 billion.
Bitcoin Core Market Data
Bitcoin weekly decline: 13% (Coin Metrics data)
Bitcoin ETFs in consecutive net outflows: 13 trading days, the longest record in history
Change in total ETF assets: $107.8 billion (May 14) → $82.8 billion
24-hour long liquidations: $594 million (CoinGlass data)
Trigger event: Strategy sold 32 Bitcoins (the first time since 2022), breaking the “never sell” belief
Analyst assessment: current catalysts and Strategy’s Monday update
Citi’s Saunders said in a report: “We expect market sentiment to remain subdued, especially with no positive developments on the regulatory front, and the divergence from stock performance remains clearly evident.” Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a report that AI and semiconductor stocks are absorbing excess liquidity, with AMD, Intel, and Micron more than doubling in value year to date.
Standard Chartered’s Jeff Kendrick said that after Strategy’s last sale of Bitcoin, it bought back at a larger scale within two days. He expects the bid to be even more aggressive after this sale, estimating 10x (320 Bitcoins) or 100x (3,200 Bitcoins). On Monday, investors will learn whether Strategy this week bought, sold, or stayed neutral—Ginsberg noted that if the company resumes active buying, it could help stabilize market sentiment.
Macro backdrop: ceasefire, oil prices, the dollar, and nonfarm
Israel and Lebanon announced a ceasefire on Wednesday. WTI crude oil fell more than 4% on Thursday. The trigger was reports that Trump is not in a rush to restore a full-scale military conflict with Iran. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.34 on Thursday; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3 basis points to 4.463%.
Kansas City Fed Chair Schmid said “inflation is still too high,” and San Francisco Fed Chair Daly said AI has not pushed inflation up or down, with monetary policy conditions in good shape. The market is watching for Friday’s U.S. May nonfarm employment report.
FAQ
Bitcoin ETFs have had net outflows for 13 consecutive days—are there similar precedents historically?
Based on SoSoValue data, this 13-day consecutive net outflow is the longest consecutive outflow record for spot Bitcoin ETFs since they were listed in the U.S. in January 2024. Over this period, ETF total assets fell from $107.8 billion to $82.8 billion.
Why does Citi’s Saunders say the “CLEAR Act” is becoming increasingly out of reach?
Saunders said in the report that the focus of legislation has changed, and lawmakers still disagree on key provisions of the “CLEAR Act,” making the legislative timeline that had previously been viewed by the market as a catalyst for a Bitcoin restart even more uncertain.
What is the basis for Standard Chartered’s Kendrick’s estimate of Strategy’s large-scale buyback?
The historical basis Kendrick cited is that after Strategy’s last sale of Bitcoins, it repurchased within two days at a scale larger than the amount sold. Based on this, he estimated a buyback of 10x (320 Bitcoins) or 100x (3,200 Bitcoins). This is Kendrick’s personal public assessment, not an official statement from Strategy.
