Bitcoin Faces Quantum Computing Threats Within 10 Years, Consensus on Migration 'Extremely Difficult': Scroll Co-founder

According to Scroll co-founder Sandy Peng on May 28, Bitcoin faces quantum computing threats estimated at approximately 10 years or less. Google Quantum AI's March white paper reveals that cracking Bitcoin's secp256k1 elliptic curve using an optimized Shor algorithm requires only about 1,200 logical qubits—roughly 20 times fewer than estimates from five years ago. IonQ's roadmap targets 1,600 logical qubits by 2028, while IBM plans to deploy its Blue Jay system with 2,000 logical qubits by 2033, narrowing the threat window significantly.

Migrating to post-quantum cryptography standards (published by NIST in 2024) carries substantial costs: network throughput is projected to decline 52-57% while fees rise 2-3 times, requiring expanded storage capacity. Sandy Peng warns that achieving consensus on such a migration is "extremely difficult" for a community already divided over previous upgrades like SegWit. Early Bitcoin holders with P2PK format addresses face particular vulnerability, as their public keys are permanently exposed on-chain, and quantum computers could enable "collect now, decrypt later" attacks on unconfirmed transactions.