Bitcoin, Ethereum Implied Volatility Surge Amid U.S.-Iran Military Tensions

According to QCP Capital, Bitcoin and Ethereum implied volatility continued rising this week as U.S.-Iran military tensions escalated over the weekend, 12 days after the two sides signed a ceasefire memorandum. The second round of negotiations faces headwinds as both sides accused each other of violating the 60-day ceasefire agreement. Oil prices remained near $70 per barrel, though upside risks persist if supply recovery lags expectations.

In crypto markets, demand for 55,000–58,000 BTC put options expiring in July increased, while spot ETF net outflows and concerns around hedging strategies weighed on sentiment alongside U.S. equity pressure. However, large buy orders also emerged for 64,000 BTC call options expiring July 17. Market attention this week will focus on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's ECB forum remarks, ISM manufacturing PMI, and U.S. nonfarm payroll data. Liquidity is expected to remain low ahead of holidays, keeping market volatility elevated.