Bernstein Slashes Kioxia Target Price to 40,000 Yen, Warning of 40% Downside on July 14

According to Bernstein analyst Mark Li on July 14, Japanese semiconductor maker Kioxia faces significant downside risk due to intensifying competition from China's YMTC. Li set a target price of 40,000 yen, implying a 40% decline from the July 13 closing price, citing concerns over prolonged NAND flash price competition and potential supply oversupply after 2029.

Counterpoint Research data shows YMTC's global NAND market share reached 13% in the first quarter of 2026, up 5 percentage points year-over-year. Bernstein expects YMTC to surpass Kioxia as the world's third-largest NAND producer by 2028. Unlike Japanese brokerages offering 100,000+ yen targets, Li's assessment stands out for its bearish stance on Kioxia's isolation in pure NAND exposure, contrasting with Samsung and SK Hynix's more diversified memory portfolios.