Bernstein Analyst: First True Semiconductor Supercycle Underway, Supply Bottlenecks Drive Growth on June 21

According to Bernstein, on June 21, senior chip analyst Stacy Rasgon stated this marks the first true semiconductor supercycle he has witnessed in his 18-year career. The industry's revenue surged from approximately $800 billion in 2025 to a projected $1.3 trillion in 2026, with all semiconductor segments—from accelerators to memory, equipment, and networking components—facing critical shortages. Rasgon noted that HBM (high-bandwidth memory) in AI chips can occupy over 85% of silicon area, with each gigabyte of HBM requiring roughly four times more silicon than standard DRAM, constraining supply despite foundry expansion efforts.

Rasgon identified an often-overlooked bottleneck: electrical power infrastructure. Should Nvidia's projected annual infrastructure investment of $3 to $4 trillion materialize, the U.S. electrical grid would need to expand capacity by approximately 5% annually—a level considered nearly impossible by power industry analysts. Rasgon stated the next constraint will emerge in energy generation, cooling systems, and nuclear power sectors.