AST SpaceMobile stocks (ASTS) jumped over 4% premarket on Monday as satellite analyst Tim Farrar questioned whether the company can close the gap with Starlink, arguing AST may arrive "too little, too late" in the direct-to-device race. Farrar said on X that AST SpaceMobile's low-band constellation lacks the spectrum and capacity to offer a service comparable to Starlink Mobile V2. The stock fell 5% on Friday to $56.20, with shares poised to end the month at their worst levels since January 2024, amid intensifying competition in the satellite direct-to-device connectivity market.
Farrar Projects Starlink Mobile V2 Capacity Gap Over AST SpaceMobile
Farrar said on X that AST SpaceMobile could arrive "too little, too late," stating its low-band constellation lacks the spectrum and capacity to offer a service comparable to Starlink Mobile V2. He also said he does not believe SpaceX views AST as a serious competitor, contrasting it with Amazon, which he sees as a more significant satellite rival.
Farrar projected $48 billion in total Starlink connectivity revenue and 46 million consumer subscribers by 2030, well below forecasts from Deutsche Bank, RBC and Morgan Stanley. He sees Starlink Mobile V2 generating several billion dollars annually, but said wholesale average revenue per user could amount to "tens of cents rather than multiple dollars," with fewer than 10% of partner subscribers actively using the service.
Farrar said direct-to-device "complements terrestrial wireless coverage rather than replacing it" and will largely serve as a fallback in remote areas and emergencies. He estimates Starlink Mobile V2 could offer wholesale capacity for less than $2 per gigabyte, yet even that may not produce attractive enough economics to justify SpaceX's roughly $20 billion spectrum investment.
Farrar expects mobile network operators to "drive a hard bargain on price by playing off the satellite D2D providers against one another," while arguing that AST and Amazon are unlikely to match Starlink Mobile V2's capabilities by 2028.
Morningstar Estimates Starlink Global Market at $129 Billion as of 2025
Morningstar reached a similar conclusion last month, calling Starlink a "niche solution, not a telecom disruptor." It estimated Starlink's realistic global market at about $129 billion as of 2025, far below SpaceX's claimed $1.6 trillion total addressable market. Morningstar sees $28 billion in rural and remote broadband opportunity and another $15 billion in "add-on" connectivity through telecom partnerships, with little potential to displace core terrestrial telecom networks.
Morningstar's conclusion: Starlink's opportunity lies "not in replacing traditional telecom networks, but in dominating the underserved edges of the connectivity market."
AST SpaceMobile Raises $1 Billion for Launch Vertical Integration
AST SpaceMobile raised $1 billion through convertible notes earlier this month and said proceeds could support launch-related "partnerships and/or acquisitions" aimed at vertically integrating the business and reducing reliance on third parties. AST said it had no agreement in place.
Farrar saw the filing as a sign of an acquisition. "The ASTS press release makes it pretty clear they now intend to buy/invest in a launch provider," he said, calling the strategy a "fascinating pivot." He also noted that AST's large BlueBird satellites cannot use Starship's Starlink-style "Pez dispenser," and questioned whether potential targets such as United Launch Alliance, Firefly Aerospace, Relativity Space or Stoke Space could provide the near-term capacity AST needs.
Retail Sentiment Turns Bearish on ASTS Stocks
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS was 'bearish' amid 'low' message volume. One user said, "$ASTS I can't remember the last time I was this 'least' excited for the market to open. All the best." Another bullish user said, "$ASTS That's it, the market sell off (totally manufactured) is officially over! It's go time, load up, here come the God candles! Then in a few months the beatdown will start all over again, just be ready."
ASTS stocks declined 6% over the past year.
FAQ
What did AST SpaceMobile stocks do on Monday?
AST SpaceMobile stocks (ASTS) jumped over 4% premarket on Monday, though the stock fell 5% on Friday to $56.20 and shares are poised to end the month at their worst levels since January 2024.
What did analyst Tim Farrar say about AST SpaceMobile versus Starlink?
Farrar said on X that AST SpaceMobile could arrive "too little, too late," arguing its low-band constellation lacks the spectrum and capacity to offer a service comparable to Starlink Mobile V2. He projected $48 billion in total Starlink connectivity revenue and 46 million consumer subscribers by 2030.
How much did AST SpaceMobile raise for launch integration?
AST SpaceMobile raised $1 billion through convertible notes earlier this month, with proceeds intended to support launch-related "partnerships and/or acquisitions" aimed at vertically integrating the business and reducing reliance on third parties.
