Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated the next major Bitcoin rally may not come from crypto-specific catalysts but from the unwinding of the artificial intelligence bubble. In an interview, Hayes said he remains 'very long Bitcoin as always,' though he has parked some capital in Treasury bills while waiting for a more asymmetric setup. Hayes argued that investors seeking a hedge against currency debasement have chosen AI stocks over Bitcoin and Ethereum this cycle, limiting upside for both. Hayes stated 'AI is the fastest horse and has proven itself to be the fastest horse.' He believes the AI buildout could eventually become a larger credit bubble than the subprime mortgage crisis, driven by aggressive data-center spending and debt backed by hardware that depreciates rapidly.
Hayes Argues AI Has Absorbed Crypto's Speculative Capital
Hayes' argument centers on where speculative money has flowed this cycle. He stated 'AI is the fastest horse and has proven itself to be the fastest horse,' arguing that investors looking for a hedge against currency debasement have chosen AI stocks over Bitcoin and Ethereum, limiting upside for both this cycle.
Hayes believes the AI buildout could eventually become a larger credit bubble than the subprime mortgage crisis. He pointed to aggressive data-center spending, circular revenue arrangements between AI firms, and debt backed by hardware that depreciates fast as the structural fault line. Hayes stated 'If we do get an AI credit event, number one, it'll be bigger than 2008. The whole world is on this delusion that AI is the biggest technology ever.'
Hayes noted that GPUs are being financed on multi-year repayment schedules even though the chips themselves improve and lose relative value at a much faster pace. He stated 'Where's the revenue? Where's the capital returns? Does this make sense?'
Hayes said that if the imbalance breaks, he expects regulators to respond with large-scale monetary stimulus. He stated 'The implosion of the AI bubble and the follow-on money printing that's going to happen, is going to dwarf subprime and is going to take us to Bitcoin a million.'
Hayes Favors Ethereum Over Bitcoin for Short-Term Setup
Despite his long-term Bitcoin conviction, Hayes said Ethereum currently offers the cleaner setup on a chart basis, since it remains well below its prior all-time high while Bitcoin and Solana have already reclaimed theirs in earlier rallies.
Hayes stated 'If I believe the AI theme will gain momentum again in the second half of the year, I would look for a large-scale altcoin that is currently hated, forgotten, and hasn't yet surpassed the peaks of the past bull cycle. Ethereum fits this description perfectly. Ethereum is a battle-tested, decentralized computer and network that has been on the market for years. There is no risk of it going to zero. When other investors, like me, are looking for asymmetry, the right time for ETH will have arrived.'
Hayes also pointed to Hyperliquid as a structurally strong product, arguing that perpetual futures suit retail traders better than many traditional exchange offerings because of round-the-clock markets and built-in leverage. He noted, however, that he personally avoids trading with leverage, stating 'The thing is already so volatile.'
FAQ
What did Arthur Hayes say about Bitcoin's next rally?
Arthur Hayes stated the next major Bitcoin rally may come from the unwinding of the artificial intelligence bubble rather than crypto-specific catalysts. Hayes said he remains 'very long Bitcoin' but believes AI has absorbed speculative capital that would otherwise flow to Bitcoin and Ethereum this cycle.
Why does Arthur Hayes think an AI credit event could send Bitcoin to $1 million?
Hayes stated 'If we do get an AI credit event, number one, it'll be bigger than 2008.' He believes the subsequent money printing in response to such an event 'is going to dwarf subprime and is going to take us to Bitcoin a million.' Hayes pointed to GPUs financed on multi-year schedules despite faster depreciation as a structural fault line in the AI buildout.
Why does Arthur Hayes prefer Ethereum over Bitcoin currently?
Hayes said Ethereum offers a cleaner chart setup because it remains well below its prior all-time high while Bitcoin and Solana have already reclaimed theirs. Hayes stated 'Ethereum is a battle-tested, decentralized computer and network that has been on the market for years. There is no risk of it going to zero. When other investors, like me, are looking for asymmetry, the right time for ETH will have arrived.'
