Arthur Hayes Predicts AI Bubble Will Burst in 2028, Citing GPU Economics

According to Arthur Hayes, the inventor of perpetual contracts, on June 26, the AI bubble is most likely to burst in 2028. Hayes stated this during an appearance on the Bonnie Blockchain podcast. He reasoned that most AI debt accumulated between 2024 and 2026, but GPUs have an actual lifespan of only two years while Wall Street depreciates them over six years. In approximately two and a half years, Hayes questioned whether high-cost H100 and Blackwell chips purchased at peak prices will generate sufficient revenue. He added that if Chinese models achieve comparable performance running on Huawei chips at one-tenth the cost, the economic logic of Western data centers would collapse.
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