SpaceX stock officially joined the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7, but its performance diverged from market expectations of "index inclusion bringing stable buying." On July 8, it closed down 0.78% at $148.30. Meanwhile, SpaceX's $25 billion corporate bonds issued in June also weakened, with a current unrealized loss of about 5% for those entering on June 23 (trading at approximately 94 cents on the dollar).
SpaceX Stock July 8 Performance: Closed at $148.30, hitting two consecutive new lows
According to reports, SpaceX stock hit a low of $145.20 intraday on July 8, the lowest since listing, and closed at $148.30, down 0.78% for the day. This marks the second consecutive trading day after inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 that the stock closed at a new low.
SpaceX's IPO was priced at $135, and the current trading price is only about $13 above the IPO price, drawing market attention to downward pressure. While Nasdaq 100 inclusion is generally seen as a sign of stable buying, SpaceX's recent performance exemplifies a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.
The blind spot of $4.3 billion passive buying: JPMorgan estimates and hedge fund pre-positioning mechanisms
JPMorgan estimates that passive rebalancing buy orders for SpaceX amount to approximately $4.3 billion, based on the Nasdaq 100's tracking assets of about $800 billion and a 1.3% index weight. However, analysts point out that passive buying is mechanically driven by rules, not reflecting genuine investor confidence in SpaceX's fundamentals. Hedge funds and short-term traders had already pre-positioned ahead of the inclusion news, and when passive funds entered according to rules, they sold holdings, creating a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect.
This highlights a known blind spot of passive investing: mechanical fund flows often serve as liquidity sources for pre-positioned traders.
SpaceX's $25 billion bonds weaken: oversubscribed 3 times, now trading at 94 cents on the dollar
Reports indicate that SpaceX quickly issued $25 billion in bonds in June, across five tranches with maturities from 5 to 30 years, mainly to refinance existing debt. The issuance was highly oversubscribed, with over 3 times the demand, allowing the company to price with narrower spreads than expected.
However, post-listing, bond prices have declined steadily. The 30-year bonds are now trading at about 94% of face value. Investors who entered on June 23 are currently experiencing an unrealized loss of approximately 5%. The simultaneous weakness in stock and bonds suggests a reassessment of SpaceX's overall valuation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did SpaceX stock fall instead of rise after joining the Nasdaq 100?
Analysts say this "rise then fall" is a typical case of "buy the rumor, sell the news": hedge funds and short-term traders had already pre-positioned before SpaceX's inclusion, and when passive index funds entered according to rules, they sold holdings. Passive buying is mechanically driven by rules and does not necessarily reflect genuine confidence in SpaceX's fundamentals. This is a market analysis perspective and does not constitute investment advice.
Why didn't JPMorgan's estimated $4.3 billion passive buy-in push up SpaceX's stock price?
While JPMorgan estimates that passive rebalancing would bring in about $4.3 billion, if active funds like hedge funds had already established long positions before the news was confirmed, then when index funds entered, they mainly provided liquidity rather than new buying. This can offset overall market buying and selling forces, leading to little or no net upward pressure.
How are SpaceX's bonds issued in June performing now?
According to reports, SpaceX's $25 billion bond issuance in June, across five tranches with maturities from 5 to 30 years, was oversubscribed by more than 3 times. However, after listing, bond prices have continued to decline. The 30-year bonds are now trading at about 94% of face value. Investors who entered at face value on June 23 are experiencing an unrealized loss of approximately 5%. Exact prices depend on bond market quotes.
