On June 8, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, sparking market expectations that the world’s most prominent AI company could go public as early as Q3 or Q4 2026. Yet, less than three weeks later, The New York Times, citing three people involved in internal discussions, reported that OpenAI was now leaning toward postponing its IPO until 2027. This pivot—from "as soon as this year" to "let’s wait"—reflects not just a shift in one company’s listing timeline, but also a deeper restructuring underway in the capitalization process of AI.
The SpaceX Shadow: An IPO Cautionary Tale
The most direct trigger for OpenAI’s change in strategy was SpaceX’s "largest IPO in history," completed in June 2026.
On June 12, SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq at $135 per share, raising over $85 billion, with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion. The stock surged after opening, briefly topping $225 on June 16. However, the rally lasted only a few days—shares quickly retreated, at one point falling to around $153, a roughly 32% drop from the peak. By the close on July 1 (Beijing time), SpaceX had rebounded to $170.86, up 4.06% for the day.
This volatility directly impacted OpenAI’s decision-making. According to reports, OpenAI’s advisory team highlighted SpaceX as a core warning case in memos to management. Advisors gave CEO Sam Altman two options: wait until 2027 to list at a $1 trillion valuation, or lower the target valuation and go public sooner. Altman’s stance was clear—any scenario with a valuation below $1 trillion was "not up for discussion."
The lesson from SpaceX: even a company with reusable rocket technology and a $1.77 trillion IPO valuation—the "first stock of the space economy"—can see the public market sharply reprice it within days. While SpaceX rebounded to $170.86 on July 1, it remains well below its $225 peak. If SpaceX couldn’t maintain a trillion-dollar valuation, investment bankers repeatedly questioned whether OpenAI could command a higher price in the public markets.
The $1 Trillion Valuation Gap: A 17% Premium Divide
The $1 trillion valuation red line that Altman insists on stands in stark contrast to OpenAI’s current financial reality.
At the end of March 2026, OpenAI completed its latest funding round, raising $122 billion at a post-money valuation of $852 billion. To reach $1 trillion, public market investors would need to pay roughly a 17% premium. Yet OpenAI’s fundamentals don’t currently justify that markup. In 2025, OpenAI generated about $13 billion in annual revenue but posted a net loss of $38.5–39 billion, largely due to $34 billion in spending on compute infrastructure, R&D, and organizational restructuring. The company’s 2026 goal is to triple revenue year-over-year, but so far, monthly revenue is only around $2 billion. To hit the $39 billion annual target, average monthly revenue would need to rise sharply for the rest of the year.
User growth is also hitting limits. ChatGPT currently has about 900 million weekly active users, falling short of some investors’ previous 1 billion target. New revenue streams—like showing ads in free or low-cost plans and adding shopping features through e-commerce partnerships—are still in early testing.
Cash flow remains under pressure. In Q1 2026, OpenAI burned through $3.7 billion in cash, more than half of its $5.7 billion in revenue for the period. CFO Sarah Friar has reportedly advocated internally for a 2027 IPO timeline, citing ongoing heavy cash outflows, massive compute infrastructure investments, and the disclosure burdens of being a public company.
Bridgewater Associates co-CIO Greg Jensen reportedly told clients that OpenAI’s current implied valuation multiple "prices in a monopoly outcome that doesn’t yet exist." This highlights OpenAI’s valuation dilemma: the private market’s pricing is based on a "winner-takes-all" AI thesis, while the public market demands a verifiable path to profitability.
Competitive Landscape and Regulatory Pressure: A Double Bind
OpenAI’s hesitation to go public comes at a cost—not just in time, but in the race for industry leadership.
Rival Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, aiming for a Nasdaq debut in October, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters. In May 2026, Anthropic closed a $65 billion Series H round, pushing its post-money valuation to $965 billion—surpassing OpenAI for the first time. More pressure comes from fundamentals: Anthropic disclosed annualized revenue exceeding $47 billion.
Meanwhile, OpenAI faces mounting political hurdles. Reuters reports that the Trump administration, citing the "excessive power" of GPT-5.6, has required OpenAI to release new models in phases. Altman told employees that GPT-5.6 would first be offered as a limited preview to select partners, with the government "approving client access one by one" during the preview period. Anthropic, by contrast, finds itself in a much more favorable political position—on June 19, the Trump administration signaled it no longer considers Anthropic a national security threat.
The Restructuring of AI Capitalization: From "Narrative-Driven" to "Profit-Validated"
OpenAI’s IPO delay signals a paradigm shift in AI capitalization—from narrative-driven hype to profit validation.
Over the past two years, AI valuations have been fueled by the assumption of "perpetual growth in compute demand." But by 2026, every link in this logic chain is under stress: compute rental prices are falling from their highs, tech giants are tightening AI budgets, and capital markets are scrutinizing AI firms based on ROI. When investors believe AI will significantly boost profits, they’re willing to pay up; if commercialization lags, valuations can quickly reset.
This shift is already evident in the secondary market. In June 2026, the combined market cap of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants shrank by nearly $2.8 trillion. On June 26, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 5%, marking its worst week since early April.
Notably, spending on AI agent software is soaring from $86.4 billion in 2025 to $206.5 billion in 2026—a 139% increase. Enterprise adoption rates have jumped from under 5% in 2025 to 40% by the end of 2026. This data shows that AI agents are moving from proof-of-concept to large-scale deployment—but scaling up also means greater capital consumption and longer payback periods, a core issue that leading companies like OpenAI must address for public markets.
Microsoft and Nvidia: Ripple Effects Along the AI Capital Chain
The ripple effects of OpenAI’s IPO delay are already visible in the share prices of Microsoft and Nvidia.
Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell about 18% in June 2026, their worst monthly performance since December 2000, wiping out over $570 billion in market value. As of July 1 (Beijing time), Microsoft closed at $373.02, up 1.21% for the day. Market concerns are mounting over Microsoft’s sustained heavy investment in AI infrastructure and the lengthening payback period. As one of OpenAI’s largest strategic investors, Microsoft’s fortunes are deeply tied to OpenAI’s capitalization process—a delayed IPO means Microsoft’s OpenAI stake lacks a public market benchmark, and the AI monetization timeline is pushed out.
Nvidia (NVDA) is also feeling the pressure. As of July 1, Nvidia closed at $200.09, up 2.63% for the day. Despite the rebound, Nvidia is up only about 6% year-to-date in 2026, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s 12.79% gain in the first half. As the core supplier of AI compute, Nvidia’s valuation is highly dependent on continued expansion of AI capital spending—if leading AI firms like OpenAI delay IPOs and slow capex, Nvidia’s earnings outlook faces systemic downgrades.
SoftBank Group offers another angle on these ripple effects. News of OpenAI’s IPO delay sent SoftBank shares plunging over 12% on the Tokyo market. The Japanese investment giant’s total committed capital to OpenAI is expected to reach about $65 billion by October 2026. Analysts note that an OpenAI IPO would provide a public market benchmark for SoftBank’s private equity holdings; a delay means that anchor disappears, and the market preemptively prices in disappointment.
Crypto Markets Under Pressure: Synchronized Risk Asset Moves
As tech stocks came under pressure, the crypto market also suffered a sharp sell-off on the first trading day of July 2026.
On July 1 (Beijing time), Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 psychological threshold, settling at $58,290 and nearing its two-week low of $58,188. Ethereum also dropped below $1,600, closing at $1,568. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the market totaled about $249 million, mostly from long positions.
Multiple structural pressures are at play. In June 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of around $4.06 billion—the largest monthly redemption since their January 2024 launch. Bitcoin fell about 19% for the month, one of the worst June performances on record. Total crypto market cap remains around $2 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance above 57%, indicating capital is still concentrating in blue-chip assets.
Crypto and tech stocks are showing synchronized moves in this correction. In the early hours of July 1 (Beijing time), all three major U.S. indexes closed higher—Nasdaq up 1.52% to 26,213.72, S&P 500 up 0.78% to 7,449.36, Dow Jones up 0.26% to 52,319.20. However, the crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 11 ("Extreme Fear"), remaining in the extreme fear zone for consecutive sessions. The simultaneous weakness in risk assets reflects a macro backdrop of tightening global liquidity and declining risk appetite—while the "AI capitalization shortfall" signaled by OpenAI’s IPO delay has further reinforced this trend.
Structural Opportunities: Allocation Logic in the AI Capitalization Transition
Against the backdrop of OpenAI’s IPO delay and the shift from "narrative-driven" to "profit-validated" AI capitalization, the market isn’t short on opportunities—rather, the structure of those opportunities is changing. Below are some noteworthy assets tradable on the Gate platform, analyzed from different angles.
Compute Infrastructure "Iron Triangle": Optical Modules, Memory Chips, Data Center Power Equipment
Galaxy Securities’ July "Top Ten Gold Stocks" report highlights compute hardware as the segment with the highest earnings realization in the AI industry. High-speed optical modules, memory chips, and data center power equipment form the "iron triangle."
AI Application Software: The "Unexpected Beneficiaries" of OpenAI’s IPO Delay
Following news of OpenAI’s delayed IPO, an interesting market phenomenon emerged: software stocks previously seen as most vulnerable to AI disruption rallied sharply. ServiceNow and Workday both surged over 9%, while Figma and Datadog closed up more than 10% and 8%, respectively.
The logic here: OpenAI’s financial pressures and IPO delay mean the timeline for AI to "fully replace" traditional software is being extended, prompting the market to reassess the survival prospects of software companies. RBC Capital Markets analyst Rishi Jaluria commented that the idea of "AI fully replacing existing software solutions" doesn’t reflect reality.
Memory Chips: The Hottest Subsector
Micron Technology’s Q3 FY2026 revenue soared 346% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS up more than 12-fold and a gross margin of 84.9%, surpassing Nvidia. The company also signed 16 long-term supply agreements (3–5 years), greatly improving revenue stability. Several investment banks believe the memory shortage may persist through 2028.
AI Infrastructure: High-Speed Interconnects and Network Upgrades
As AI clusters scale up, the industry focus is shifting from simply stacking compute to improving memory utilization and overall cluster efficiency. High-speed interconnects, CXL, and memory pooling are emerging as key directions for the next phase.
Gate stock trading now supports more than 12,500 U.S., Hong Kong, and Korean stocks, and has been fully upgraded to 24/7 trading—including pre-market, regular, after-hours, overnight, and weekend sessions. All the U.S., Hong Kong, and Korean stocks mentioned above can be traded directly on Gate, with support for USDT trading and fractional shares starting from 0.01.
Risk Disclosure
The assets mentioned above are based solely on public information and institutional research reports, and do not constitute investment advice. Valuation dispersion within the AI sector is significant—Nvidia’s forward P/E is about 20x, Broadcom’s 23x, while Marvell’s is 58x and Astera’s as high as 116x. Over 60% of planned 2027 data center capacity has yet to break ground, and 7% of projects under construction have been delayed due to supply chain bottlenecks and power shortages. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance.
Conclusion
OpenAI’s decision to postpone its IPO to 2027 may appear to be a timing adjustment driven by valuation disputes, but at its core, it marks a pivotal shift in AI capitalization—from narrative-driven hype to profit validation. The dramatic swings in SpaceX’s stock after its IPO offer a close-up warning for OpenAI—a trillion-dollar valuation is not a guarantee in the public market; it requires sustained commercial execution. Even with SpaceX’s rebound to $170.86 on July 1, the stock remains far below its peak—a telling fact in itself. For core AI industry players like Microsoft and Nvidia, this means the payback period for AI capital spending could be reassessed; for the crypto market, it further confirms that global risk assets are undergoing a systemic repricing. Regardless of when and at what valuation OpenAI ultimately goes public, this delay has already reshaped market expectations for the pace of AI capitalization.
FAQ
Q1: Why is OpenAI considering postponing its IPO?
OpenAI is considering pushing its IPO from 2026 to 2027 primarily because CEO Sam Altman insists on a $1 trillion valuation and refuses to accept a lower price. The immediate trigger was SpaceX’s post-IPO share price plunge from its $225 peak, combined with ongoing tech stock volatility, cooling AI sentiment, and OpenAI’s own profitability challenges (with a 2025 net loss of about $38.5 billion), prompting management to reassess the timing.
Q2: What impact does OpenAI’s IPO delay have on Microsoft and Nvidia?
Microsoft’s stock fell about 18% in June 2026, wiping out over $570 billion in market value—its worst month since 2000. As of July 1 (Beijing time), Microsoft closed at $373.02. As one of OpenAI’s largest strategic investors, Microsoft faces a lack of public market pricing for its OpenAI stake due to the IPO delay. Nvidia closed at $200.09 on July 1, and its valuation is highly dependent on ongoing AI capital spending—a delayed OpenAI fundraising plan could mean a slowdown in compute procurement.
Q3: How did SpaceX’s IPO performance influence OpenAI’s decision?
SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, 2026, raising over $85 billion at a $1.77 trillion initial valuation, with shares peaking at $225 before quickly retreating. As of July 1 (Beijing time), SpaceX closed at $170.86. This performance became a core warning case for OpenAI’s advisors—if SpaceX couldn’t maintain a trillion-dollar valuation, OpenAI’s chances of achieving similar pricing in the public market are clearly in question.
Q4: What does OpenAI’s IPO delay mean for the crypto market?
On July 1, 2026, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 to $58,290, while Ethereum dropped below $1,600. In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $4.06 billion in net outflows, a record high. The "AI capitalization shortfall" signal from OpenAI’s IPO delay, combined with tightening liquidity and declining risk appetite in the crypto market, points to a systemic repricing of global risk assets.
Q5: What is the status of OpenAI’s competitors?
Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting a Nasdaq listing in October. In May, Anthropic closed a $65 billion Series H round, reaching a post-money valuation of $965 billion and surpassing OpenAI for the first time. Its annualized revenue has exceeded $47 billion. In the race for capital markets, Anthropic has taken the lead.
