July 20, 2026, according to Gate market data, the Bitcoin price stands at $64,500 USD. This level marks a nearly 50% decline from the all-time high of $126,198 USD in October 2025, yet Bitcoin remains firmly above the $60,000 mark.
The market finds itself at a delicate crossroads. The traditional "four-year Bitcoin cycle" theory—which suggests prices peak 12 to 18 months after each halving, followed by a deep correction—appears to be breaking down. Grayscale, the world’s largest digital asset manager, explicitly stated in its 2026 outlook report: The narrative of cryptocurrency’s ‘four-year cycle’ is coming to an end.
At the same time, the narrative of a "Trump bull market" is gaining traction as a new market consensus. From executive orders on strategic Bitcoin reserves to public statements about possibly including Bitcoin in "Trump accounts," policy variables are reshaping supply and demand dynamics. Has the four-year cycle truly run its course? Can the Trump factor become the primary driver of the next market phase?
What Is the Historical Basis for the Four-Year Cycle Theory?
Bitcoin’s "four-year cycle" theory is rooted in the mechanism of block reward halving. Every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years), the Bitcoin network halves the mining reward, historically triggering a chain reaction of supply contraction and price appreciation.
Data from the past three cycles have supported this narrative. The 2013 bull run was powered by the rise of centralized exchanges and the influx of Chinese miners. The 2017 cycle was driven by the ICO boom and Ethereum’s ascent. The 2021 cycle combined post-pandemic global liquidity, institutional entry, and explosive new narratives like DeFi and NFTs.
In each cycle, Bitcoin reached a cyclical peak 12 to 18 months after the halving, followed by a deep correction. Following this pattern, the fourth halving in April 2024 (reducing block rewards to 3.125 BTC) should have propelled Bitcoin to a high of $150,000 to $200,000 between late 2025 and early 2026. In reality, Bitcoin hit around $120,000 in December 2024, then entered a period of volatility and retracement.
The "breakdown" of the cycle has triggered deep anxiety in the market and led to Grayscale’s core assessment.
Why Does Grayscale Believe the Four-Year Cycle Is Ending?
Grayscale’s "2026 Digital Asset Outlook" report presents three key pieces of evidence supporting the end of the four-year cycle.
First, structural changes in institutional capital inflows. In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s annual gains exceeded 1,000%, fueled by retail investors chasing momentum. In this cycle, the maximum annual gain was about 240% (as of March 2024). This difference isn’t due to market weakness, but reflects more stable buying behavior from institutional investors—they allocate based on long-term strategy, not short-term technical cycles, and won’t exit just because "the four-year cycle is up."
Second, fundamental improvement in the regulatory environment. Past cycle collapses often coincided with regulatory crackdowns or major scandals. The landscape in 2026 is entirely different: the US passed the Stablecoin GENIUS Act, bipartisan crypto market structure legislation is expected to pass, and the SEC has shifted from litigation to industry collaboration. This regulatory clarity provides institutions with the confidence for long-term allocation.
Third, diversification of capital inflow channels. Previous cycles relied mainly on retail buying through exchanges, with funds quickly exiting when sentiment reversed. In 2026, capital flows steadily through spot ETPs, wealth managers include crypto assets in model portfolios, and top institutions like Harvard Management Company and Abu Dhabi sovereign funds are allocating to crypto ETPs. By the end of May 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of over $150 billion, collectively holding nearly 1.3 million BTC—about 6.5% of total circulating supply.
Grayscale concludes: 2026 will mark the end of the "explicit four-year cycle," and Bitcoin could break its all-time high in the first half of the year.
What Are the Differences Between Mainstream Market Expectations and Grayscale?
Grayscale isn’t alone. Bitwise also predicts Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and set new records in 2026. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougen notes that the historical four-year cycle is "significantly weakening," and Bitcoin’s volatility may fall below Nvidia for the first time. 21Shares uses even stronger language—"Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has broken."
However, there are notable disagreements.
Fidelity points out that since 2011, Bitcoin has formed bull market tops and bottoms roughly every four years. The last bear market bottom was in November 2022; if the cycle holds, the next potential bottom could be around November 2026. Fidelity Labs executives believe Bitcoin may be transitioning from the four-year cycle to a "supercycle," characterized by longer-lasting price highs and shallower corrections.
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, analyzed Bitcoin’s historical peaks and troughs, finding the four-year cycle closely tied to price action, but volatility is narrowing—from peak-to-trough declines of 85% and 84% in early cycles to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. Galaxy predicts the current cycle’s bottom hasn’t yet formed.
The essence of this debate is: Is Bitcoin’s cyclicality structural (driven by halving’s supply constraints), or narrative-driven (determined by new sources of demand each cycle)?
If it’s structural, the four-year cycle won’t truly end—it’ll just be "smoothed out," with reduced volatility and longer durations. If it’s narrative-driven, the cycle’s continuation depends on whether 2026 brings a new demand driver strong enough to replace the halving narrative.
How Is Institutional Capital Changing Bitcoin’s Pricing Logic?
Grayscale’s report highlights a core insight: The structural shift in market participants is fundamentally changing Bitcoin’s pricing logic.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price was dominated by retail sentiment. Retail investors’ chase-the-rally and panic-selling amplified the halving narrative, creating the standardized script of "halving—price surge—FOMO—crash." But as incremental capital shifts from retail to institutions, behavior patterns fundamentally change.
Institutional capital has several distinct features. First, allocation-driven rather than emotion-driven. Pension funds, insurers, and family offices include crypto assets in model portfolios, making buy/sell decisions based on asset allocation models, not market sentiment. Second, long-term holding instead of short-term trading. BlackRock’s internal data shows that over 60% of IBIT clients are pension funds, insurers, and family offices—long-term money with very low turnover. Third, steady inflows rather than pulse-driven entries and exits. This structural, persistent buying power smooths out extreme price swings.
More importantly, institutions’ entry logic is unrelated to the halving cycle. Their reasons for allocating to Bitcoin are rising dollar depreciation risk, driving demand for alternative stores of value, and increased regulatory clarity boosting compliance confidence. Grayscale notes that America’s rising public debt is eroding the dollar’s long-term credibility as a store of value, while Bitcoin’s transparent, programmatic, and ultimately scarce supply is increasingly seen by institutions as a ballast against fiat risk.
When pricing logic shifts from "halving narrative" to "macro hedging + asset allocation," the four-year cycle’s constraints naturally weaken.
Does the "Trump Bull Market" Narrative Have Fundamental Support?
On the policy front, the "Trump bull market" narrative is gaining consensus. In March 2025, Trump signed an executive order pledging not to sell the federal government’s Bitcoin holdings. In July 2026, he publicly stated, "I am now a big supporter of cryptocurrency," and mentioned Bitcoin could be included as an investment option in "Trump accounts."
These policy signals go beyond short-term price moves. A four-year ban on US-issued central bank digital currency (CBDC) automatically took effect with the housing bill. If "Trump accounts" officially include Bitcoin in the future, the policy signal will far outweigh the actual capital involved—it would mean the US federal government formally recognizes Bitcoin as a tool for national wealth accumulation.
Standard Chartered maintains its Bitcoin price forecast: $500,000 USD before Trump leaves office. TD Cowen predicts Bitcoin will reach about $177,000 USD by the end of 2026 and $226,000 USD by the end of 2027.
But the "Trump bull market" isn’t without risks. The executive order on strategic Bitcoin reserves promised "not to sell," not "to buy." The market had expected more; when the order’s details became clear, Bitcoin’s price immediately dropped 5.7%. Policy implementation still faces hurdles like Congressional legislation and regulatory frameworks.
Whether the "Trump bull market" materializes depends on whether policy signals translate into actual institutional buying—which circles back to Grayscale’s core assessment: Is sustained institutional capital inflow enough to offset the waning impact of the halving?
What New Paradigm Awaits Bitcoin After the End of the Four-Year Cycle?
If Grayscale’s assessment holds, the Bitcoin market will enter an entirely new paradigm after the four-year cycle ends.
Price volatility will continue to compress. Bitwise predicts Bitcoin’s volatility will fall below Nvidia for the first time. Galaxy Digital’s data also shows peak-to-trough declines are steadily shrinking. This means Bitcoin will gradually shed its "high-beta tech stock" label and evolve into a "mature macro asset."
Pricing anchors will shift from halving to macro variables. Bitcoin’s price will increasingly reflect dollar liquidity, real interest rates, fiscal deficits, and other macro factors, rather than just the halving calendar. Grayscale’s report notes that both previous cyclical peaks coincided with Fed rate hikes, while the current and 2026 outlook expect the Fed to be in an easing cycle.
Market structure will shift from ‘retail-driven’ to ‘institutional-driven.’ Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries have become the core new buyers in the 2024–2026 cycle. By the end of May 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively held nearly 1.3 million BTC. This structural capital inflow won’t be interrupted by technical cycle theories.
Of course, cycles haven’t disappeared entirely—the emotions of fear and greed that drive them remain. But the cycle’s shape is changing: longer-lasting peaks, shallower corrections, and more diverse drivers.
Conclusion
Grayscale’s assessment of the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle rests on three pillars: structural shifts in institutional capital, improved regulatory environment, and diversified capital inflow channels. Institutions like Bitwise and 21Shares echo this view to varying degrees, while Fidelity and Galaxy Digital remain more cautious.
Regardless of whether the four-year cycle truly "ends," one fact is clear: Bitcoin’s pricing logic is shifting from halving-driven narratives to institutional allocation and macro policy drivers. In this new paradigm, the "Trump bull market" narrative offers policy-driven imagination, but its realization depends on regulatory implementation and the pace of actual institutional inflows.
As of July 20, 2026, Bitcoin is quoted at $65,000 USD on the Gate platform. This price is below the feverish expectations of cycle tops, yet far above the pessimism of historical bottoms—it may well represent the market’s valuation at the intersection of old and new paradigms.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Has the four-year Bitcoin cycle really ended?
Grayscale’s 2026 outlook report explicitly makes this claim, arguing that structural institutional inflows, improved regulatory environment, and diversified capital channels will render the traditional halving-driven cycle obsolete. However, institutions like Fidelity believe the cycle hasn’t disappeared entirely—its shape may simply be changing.
Q: What does Grayscale predict for Bitcoin in 2026?
Grayscale hasn’t provided a specific price forecast, but clearly states Bitcoin is highly likely to break its all-time high in the first half of 2026.
Q: What is the core logic behind the "Trump bull market"?
The core logic includes: Trump’s executive order on strategic Bitcoin reserves (pledging not to sell), public statements supporting cryptocurrency, and policy expectations that "Trump accounts" may include Bitcoin. These policy signals provide institutions with political confidence to invest.
Q: How does institutional capital affect Bitcoin’s cyclicality?
Institutional capital is allocation-driven, long-term, and steadily flowing. Its behavior is fundamentally different from retail investors’ chase-the-rally and panic-selling. This structural buying power smooths out extreme price swings and weakens the cyclical impact of halving events.
Q: What is the current price of Bitcoin?
As of July 20, 2026, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin is quoted at $64,600 USD.
