When the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announced plans to launch tokenized securities trading in July 2026, Nasdaq began building a regulatory framework for blockchain-based stock issuance, and Intercontinental Exchange started planning for tokenized equities—tokenization is no longer a concept awaiting validation. It’s now a timeline moving into execution.
Citi’s report, "Tokenization 2030: Wall Street On-Chain Investments," released ahead of the Proof of Talk conference in Paris, offers a quantitative perspective on this transformation: The global tokenized securities market currently stands at roughly $1.7 billion, but is projected to reach $5.5 trillion by 2030. Depending on adoption rates, the conservative scenario is $2.7 trillion, while the optimistic scenario could see $8.2 trillion.
This forecast deserves serious attention not because the numbers are large, but because it’s based on three key drivers: the overhaul of core financial market infrastructure, the scaling of compliant stablecoins as settlement media, and substantive progress on federal-level legislation for security tokens in the US. Over the past six months, all three have moved from the discussion stage to operational execution. Tokenization is shifting from "Can it be done?" to "Who will do it first, how will it be done, and at what scale?"
Behind the $5.5 Trillion Forecast: Why Public Market Assets Are the Main Battleground for Tokenization
Citi’s $5.5 trillion base scenario rests on a crucial structural judgment: The first wave of large-scale tokenization will focus on the most liquid, transparent, and frequently cleared public market assets—primarily US Treasuries and publicly traded stocks—not the alternative assets like private equity, real estate, or commodities that have dominated industry discussions.
This view diverges sharply from previous industry narratives. In recent years, tokenization stories have centered on "making illiquid assets liquid," mapping private credit, private equity, art, and real estate onto blockchains to unlock liquidity premiums through fragmentation and secondary trading. However, Citi’s model shows this path is unlikely to achieve large-scale breakthroughs before 2030—the report estimates that the combined global tokenization of private credit and private equity will reach only about $100 billion, less than one-fiftieth the scale of public market tokenization.
The issue goes beyond technical feasibility; it’s rooted in fundamental differences in market microstructure. Public market assets feature standardized issuance formats, mature pricing mechanisms, established market-maker networks, and clear legal ownership pathways. Tokenization for these assets is primarily an efficiency upgrade at the settlement and custody layer, not a wholesale rebuild of market infrastructure. In contrast, private assets rely on complex contractual terms for ownership, non-public information for valuation, and bilateral negotiations for trading. Blockchain mapping only solves registration, not the deeper issues of liquidity matching.
Citi’s quantitative roadmap is specific: By 2030, it expects 10% of the US Treasury market and 3% of the US public equity market to be tokenized. Stablecoin issuers’ demand for Treasuries could drive about $1 trillion in new on-chain Treasury demand, while if 10% of US retail investors shift to digital trading platforms, it could generate $2.6 trillion in tokenized equity demand. This logic shows that the first wave of tokenization growth comes not from expanding asset types, but from reallocating existing asset classes across different infrastructures.
From a market structure perspective, this means tokenization’s early impact on capital markets isn’t "creating new assets," but "restructuring how existing assets are held and transferred." Treasuries and equities remain fundamentally the same, but their settlement cycles, custody layers, programmability, and collateral reuse efficiency will change significantly. For intermediaries reliant on settlement cycle arbitrage, custody layer spreads, and collateral scarcity premiums, these shifts will directly challenge their business models.
DTCC and Nasdaq Enter the Arena: Why Market Infrastructure Is the Turning Point
Citi’s report uses the term "turning point" to describe the significance of DTCC and the New York Stock Exchange introducing tokenization to capital markets—a definition worth unpacking.
DTCC is the backbone of US securities clearing and settlement, handling centralized custody and post-trade processing for stocks, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and more, with annual transaction volumes exceeding $20 trillion. In May 2026, DTCC announced it will begin limited tokenized securities trading in July, with a full platform rollout in October. This timeline marks the first time tokenized securities will connect directly to nationwide clearing networks like NYSE and Nasdaq, no longer relying on independent blockchain trading platforms or broker-built systems.
Nasdaq’s move goes even further. Not only is Nasdaq building a framework for companies to issue blockchain-based stocks, but it has also received regulatory approval to allow certain stocks to be issued and traded digitally, with the earliest launch possible in 2027. The New York Stock Exchange, under Intercontinental Exchange, has similarly announced plans for tokenized stock issuance.
The synchronized push by these three infrastructure giants changes the competitive landscape for tokenization. Previously, tokenization was driven mostly by crypto-native players, with trading confined to relatively closed blockchain ecosystems and isolated from mainstream capital market liquidity pools. Integrating DTCC and exchange systems means the same security could exist simultaneously in traditional bookkeeping systems and blockchain ledgers, requiring interoperability between their clearing and settlement channels. This is the core feature of the "parallel old and new systems" phase described by Citi.
Citi uses the analogy of highway electronic tolling to explain this transition: Toll roads don’t eliminate cash lanes overnight; both cash and electronic lanes coexist for a long period, making the system more complex until the transition is complete. For capital markets today, DTCC’s limited tokenized trading, Nasdaq’s framework development, and exchange pilot programs are all in the "widening the road and adding parallel lanes" stage.
However, this parallel phase also creates new competitive dimensions. Custodian banks capable of managing both traditional securities ledgers and on-chain token ledgers, brokers connecting DTCC’s clearing system with on-chain settlement protocols, and market makers providing liquidity in both environments will gain structural advantages during the transition. Citi refers to these as "structural coordinators."
Stablecoins as the Settlement Layer: The Mutual Reinforcement of On-Chain Treasuries and Compliant Stablecoins
For tokenized securities to move from registration to real-time trading, the core bottleneck isn’t representing assets on-chain, but achieving on-chain settlement on the payment side. In traditional securities trading, delivery-versus-payment relies on coordination between interbank payment systems and central counterparties, with settlement cycles typically T+1 or T+2. If on-chain payments still depend on traditional bank transfers, tokenization’s efficiency advantage is lost.
Stablecoins at scale solve this bottleneck. Citi expects the standard stablecoin market to reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, working in tandem with digital bank deposits to enable instant on-chain exchange of assets and cash. This means both sides of a transaction can complete asset delivery and payment settlement within the same block, reducing counterparty risk exposure from two days to minutes.
A deeper structural change is the mutual reinforcement between stablecoins and Treasuries. Compliant stablecoin issuers typically use highly liquid assets as reserve backing, with US Treasuries as the most important component. As stablecoin scale expands, issuers must continually increase Treasury holdings to meet reserve requirements. Citi predicts stablecoin growth will drive about $1 trillion in new US Treasury demand. Meanwhile, these purchased Treasuries can themselves be tokenized, appearing as on-chain Treasury tokens on issuers’ balance sheets, further enriching the on-chain collateral ecosystem.
The macro implications of this cycle are significant. The combination of on-chain Treasury tokens and compliant stablecoins effectively creates a dollar-denominated, risk-free rate benchmark operating on blockchain, with settlement efficiency surpassing traditional interbank markets. For overseas small institutions and retail investors who previously struggled to access the US Treasury market directly, this channel lowers entry barriers and holding costs, potentially attracting new inflows to US Treasuries and strengthening the dollar’s role in the global digital financial system.
From a liquidity perspective, tokenizing Treasuries not only increases demand but also boosts collateral circulation efficiency. In traditional repo markets, the same Treasury can only be used in one collateral chain at a time. Programmable on-chain collateral enables atomic reuse of the same asset across multiple scenarios, unlocking liquidity currently trapped in clearing margin systems. This will have systemic effects on market makers’ risk management, brokers’ balance sheet structures, and overall market funding costs.
Progress on the "Clarity Act" and Regulatory Certainty: The Final Link for Institutional Capital
If infrastructure and settlement tools solve technical feasibility, regulatory certainty addresses compliance feasibility. For US institutional investors managing trillions in assets, entry into any new asset class requires clear legal authority and compliance pathways.
On May 14, 2026, the US Senate Banking Committee passed the "Clarity Act" with a bipartisan vote of 15-9, ending a four-month stalemate and moving the bill to a full Senate vote. Once enacted, it will provide a unified federal legal framework for the issuance, custody, trading, and investor protection of digital asset securities.
The signal from this bipartisan vote is more important than the specific provisions. In recent years, digital asset legislation has repeatedly stalled in Congress, not due to technical issues, but because partisan divides have tied crypto topics to broader political battles. The 15-9 bipartisan vote—with at least some Democrats and Republicans voting together—shows political resistance is weakening, especially for security tokens, which align closely with traditional financial regulatory frameworks. The legislative priority for these areas is rising.
From an institutional behavior perspective, greater regulatory certainty directly changes how risk and reward are calculated. In regulatory gray areas, even if market infrastructure is ready, compliance departments remain cautious about tokenized securities because regulatory uncertainty can translate into unquantifiable legal and reputational risks. Once legislation is enacted, uncertainty shifts from "Is it compliant?" to "How to comply?"—the latter has actionable pathways, allowing legal and compliance teams to develop concrete internal standards and procedures.
Citi lists regulatory clarity as a core driver for tokenization, and the logic is clear. Technology, infrastructure, and regulation are the three gears driving tokenization forward. The first two are already turning; the engagement of the regulatory gear determines the system’s maximum speed.
Market Structure Faces Reconstruction: Liquidity, Pricing Power, and the Rise of "Structural Coordinators"
Combining the logic chains above, we can sketch a picture of the evolving market structure.
First is the clearing and settlement layer. DTCC’s integration of tokenized trading and stablecoins enabling instant settlement will gradually compress margin requirements and counterparty risk exposures under traditional T+1/T+2 cycles. This benefits brokers’ balance sheet management, but narrows the profit margins for intermediaries reliant on settlement cycle arbitrage and intraday liquidity matching. Improved settlement efficiency also means lower added value for settlement services.
Next is the issuance and underwriting layer. Once Nasdaq’s framework for on-chain stock issuance is established, companies could bypass parts of the traditional underwriting process and issue securities directly to qualified investors via tokenization. Investment banks’ value in underwriting will shift more toward distribution networks and pricing capabilities rather than issuance channels, forcing them to redefine their position in the value chain.
Third is custody and asset management. When the same security exists in both DTCC’s central custody system and multiple blockchain ledgers, custodians’ roles shift from simple asset safekeeping to cross-system coordination. Institutions offering unified on-chain/off-chain custody interfaces, handling public/private key and compliance identity mapping, and managing blockchain-specific events like forks and airdrops will gain differentiated competitive advantages.
Most importantly, pricing power is shifting. In a tokenized environment, programmable on-chain collateral flows more efficiently, and market makers’ funding costs are lower, likely narrowing bid-ask spreads and deepening markets. Competition among liquidity providers will shift from capital scale to technical efficiency, with those best able to manage on-chain collateral and cross-system liquidity gaining pricing advantages.
Citi’s "structural coordinators" are the large banks and investment firms that control physical asset gateways, digital funding channels, and compliant custody licenses. During the transition period when traditional and on-chain systems run in parallel, these institutions can complete asset creation, payment settlement, and custody within their own closed networks, capturing flow allocation and pricing authority. This view stands in stark contrast to early narratives about market disintermediation—tokenization hasn’t eliminated intermediaries, but has redefined the sources of their value.
FAQ
What is Citi’s core forecast for the tokenized securities market?
Citi predicts the tokenized securities market will grow from the current $1.7 billion to $5.5 trillion by 2030, with a conservative estimate of $2.7 trillion and an optimistic scenario of $8.2 trillion. Growth will be primarily driven by US Treasuries and publicly traded stocks.
Why is DTCC’s tokenized trading plan seen as a turning point?
DTCC is the core clearing infrastructure for US securities markets. Its plan to launch tokenized securities trading in July 2026 and fully roll out the platform in October marks the first time tokenized securities will enter a nationwide clearing network, signaling real integration between traditional and blockchain markets.
How do stablecoins drive the growth of the tokenized securities market?
Stablecoins provide instant on-chain settlement payment tools, solving the efficiency bottleneck of delivery-versus-payment. Stablecoin issuers also need to purchase US Treasuries as reserve backing, which is expected to generate about $1 trillion in new on-chain Treasury demand.
Why does Citi believe tokenization will focus on public markets rather than private markets?
Public market assets have standardized issuance formats, mature pricing mechanisms, and established market-maker networks. Tokenization mainly improves settlement and custody efficiency. Private market assets have complex ownership structures and rely on non-public information for valuation, making blockchain mapping insufficient to solve deep liquidity matching issues.
What does progress on the "Clarity Act" mean for the tokenization market?
The "Clarity Act" will provide a unified federal legal framework for digital asset securities, removing compliance uncertainty for institutional investors entering the tokenized securities market. It’s a key prerequisite for large-scale institutional capital inflows.
How will tokenization affect traditional exchanges and brokers?
Tokenization will compress settlement cycles and reduce margin requirements, forcing brokers to rethink balance sheet management. Exchanges like Nasdaq building on-chain issuance frameworks could also reshape competition in corporate listings and underwriting.
What institutions are "structural coordinators"?
Structural coordinators are large banks and investment firms that control physical asset gateways, digital funding channels, and compliant custody licenses. During the parallel operation of traditional and blockchain systems, they can complete closed-loop transactions within their own networks, gaining pricing and flow allocation advantages.
