PaiCrypto

🇺🇸 Market Closure Essay
SPY is two dollars away from hitting a new all-time high. Q is three steps away from its peak. The Technology ETF XLK gained 2.2% over the week, hitting a new high close to its face.
But one person didn't follow.
NVDA, slid down 11% from its high. The most certain name in AI, fell behind in this rally.
This isn't a bad thing. Last year, it was all supported by NVDA; when it coughed, the entire sector ran a fever. Now, with SPY approaching a new high and NVDA moving downward, the story of gains is no longer the same.
Money is flowing from AI arms manufacturer

U.S. stocks have risen for nine consecutive weeks, and crypto ETFs have moved 2 billion dollars. Looking back on the last day of May, the same macro environment, two different worlds.
BTC started at 74k and returned to 74k, the price didn't change, but the flow of money did. The combined ETFs of BTC and ETH saw outflows of over 2 billion USD in May. During the same period, the S&P 500 rose from 7400 to 7580. Institutions are selling coins to buy stocks, and this is the most honest report card for May.
ETH fluctuates around 2000, SOL around 80. The term "altcoin season" is no longer mention

U.S. stocks have risen for nine consecutive weeks, and crypto ETFs have run up 2 billion dollars. Looking back on the last day of May, two different worlds under the same macro environment.
BTC started at 74k and returned to 74k, the price unchanged, but the flow of money has shifted. The combined ETFs of BTC and ETH saw outflows of over 2 billion USD in May. During the same period, the S&P 500 rose from 7400 to 7580. Institutions are selling coins to buy stocks, and this is the most honest report card for May.
ETH fluctuates around 2000, SOL around 80. The term "altcoin season" is no long

Monday 77k, Thursday 72.5k, now 74k.
Honestly, this week was not sideways. It was a real decline. On Monday, it was still above 77k, by Wednesday it broke through 74k, and on Thursday it touched the lower boundary of the daily channel at 72.5k.
Three thousand points lost in a week. The fear index is at 28, not yet at extreme fear.
What does that mean? Some people still haven't cut their losses.
Next week, I will only watch one number, 72.5k.
The bottom formed on Thursday. If we hit it again next week, it’s likely to break.
If it breaks, look at 70k.
If 70k breaks again, all the g

Monday 77k, Thursday 72.5k, now 74k.
Honestly, this week was not sideways. It was a real decline. On Monday, it was still above 77k, by Wednesday it broke below 74k, and on Thursday it touched the lower boundary of the daily channel at 72.5k.
Three thousand points lost in one week. The fear index is at 28, not yet at extreme fear.
What does that mean? Some people still haven't cut their losses.
Next week, I will only watch one number, 72.5k.
The bottom formed on Thursday. If we hit it again next week, it’s likely to break.
If it breaks, look at 70k.
If 70k breaks again, all the g

🇺🇸 Market Closure Reflection
#NVDA 周五跌了1.45%，但 #XLK rose by 2.23%. The same sector, moving in the opposite direction.
This is not the first time. Over the past few weeks, NVDA dropped from $236 to $211, while the overall tech sector hit new all-time highs. The money for AI hasn't left; it's just not on NVDA anymore. Software, cloud computing, cybersecurity—these are now the sectors taking over.
There's a growing feeling: NVDA has become the TSLA of 2021. Everyone is still talking about it, but those making money are no longer relying on it.
Gold also quietly increased by 1%, and the VIX drop

🇺🇸 Market Closure Reflection
#NVDA 周五跌了1.45%，但 #XLK rose by 2.23%. The same sector, moving in the opposite direction.
This is not the first time. Over the past few weeks, NVDA dropped from $236 to $211, while the overall tech sector hit new all-time highs. The money for AI hasn't left; it's just not on NVDA anymore. Software, cloud computing, cybersecurity—these are now the sectors taking over.
There's a growing feeling: NVDA has become the TSLA of 2021. Everyone is still talking about it, but those making money are no longer relying on it.
Gold quietly rose by 1%, and the VIX dropped to 15.

Figure 3: Super-Objective Data Reasoning Expectations
I personally believe that only a super black swan event would cause such an extremely extreme market trend. The objective data reasoning in Figure 2 itself includes the statistical results of the specific impact of historical black swan events on cyclical prices, thereby inferring the objective price range at the bottom of Figure 2.
Price Range: Around 30K at the lower boundary of the weekly channel
Specific trend chart projection: 👇

Figure 2: Reasoning Based on Historical Objective Data
October-November 2026
A price low point occurs, marking the end of this bear market cycle.
The price bottom is in the range of: 56.8k-44k.
Specific trend chart projection: 👇

This week in the US stock market, one word: up. Two words: tech up.
SPX opened today at 7598, just shy of its all-time high.
Nasdaq is at 27088, also near a new high.
The most aggressive sector is the tech sector XLK, which rose 2.48% in the first half hour of trading.
Honestly, I feel a bit dazed.
A month ago, everyone was still discussing whether there would be a pullback,
now they’re talking about “whether it can continue next week” at the new highs.
Energy is the only sector that was hurt this week.
XLE fell 1.22 today, oil prices are dropping, money is moving from old econ

This week, the U.S. stock market has only one word: up. Two words: tech is rising.
SPX opened today at 7598, just shy of its all-time high. The Nasdaq is at 27088, also near a new high.
The strongest sector is the tech sector XLK, which surged 2.48% in the first half-hour after opening.
Honestly, I feel a bit dazed. A month ago, everyone was still discussing whether there would be a pullback, and now we're talking about "whether it can continue next week" at new highs.
Energy was the only sector hurt this week. XLE fell 1.22 today, oil prices are dropping, and money is moving from old